It’s Never Over… In The NBA..?

Posted on March 31, 2011

never over for NBAThe fourth quarter starts with Oklahoma City -79 Phoenix-73 for a combined total of 152 points. My bet (Archive page 3/30/11) was that this game would go over a point total of 212. This means that I need 60 points in the 4th quarter just to get a push and get my money back. I need 61 for the win. Mind you also that both teams played the night before and both travelled to this game site in Phoenix. So 61 points is 30.5 points per team in twelve minutes of play. The totals for each team by quarter to this point have been 33,28,22,23,24, and 22, only once breaking the 30 mark. Not impossible but looking very grim to say the least. Time to hit pause on the live NBA TV I am watching and catch up on Boston Rob’s progress with his nitwit tribe-mates on Survivor. This guys is pure Boston comedy as he manipulates every sun soaked girl and mimbo California guy to do exactly what he wants in a nice Canton boy Xaverian Bros. sort of way. Third time on the show and you think I would be sick of him but he is classic.

I check back to NBA TV which does not carry this game live, but darts in and out of games all night (pretty cool actually). The score on the ticker is 87-77 for a total of 164 so I need 49 points with 8:41 remaining. Still not looking good at all, 25 points per team in a game that is now a 10 point lead? Back to Survivor. Boston Rob gives a speech to the camera saying that one of his tribe mates is so dumb he does need to blindside him to vote him off, he laughs and says I am going to tell him we are voting him off, it will be the first frontside in Survivor history…good stuff. This is beginning to take the sting out of this loss I am about to endure. I check in again and fast forward keeping my eye on the ticker on the bottom. Its now 5:59 remaining and 91-80 for a total of 171, so I need 42 points for the win. Wait, they scored only 7 points in the last 2:42! This is done. Pause and back gain to the aptly named Redemption Island episode of Survivor. Rob is now dominating a challenge with his team by swinging a bag around a spiral ring with huge throws and the other team immediately starts to copy his method. I watch this for a while and check back in at the 3:02 mark to find it is now 106-86 for a total of 192 which means I need 21 points scored for the win in 3 minutes. They are now showing this game live only to show Kevin Durant, Vince Carter, Kendrick Perkins, and every other starter you have ever heard of being taken out of the game. This is done. Time to see who gets voted out. Its certainly is not Rob because his team won the challenge and hoped into a helicopter and flew to the top of an active volcano and had a picnic lunch/feast. Here of course Rob takes a jar or cylinder shaped cookies and finds a clue to a hidden immunity idol. Which by the way he does not need, because he already has it, no one on his tribe knows this, so he laughs again to the camera as he throws it into the volcano with out even reading it. Too Funny. I check back again and the game is over. The final is 116-98. My eyes have to refocus as I do some quick math (not a very strong math guy). That’s 214? Holy crap! How did this happen? Well, I get online (after the torch has been snuffed of course) and see that the two teams went 8 for 11 in the last 3 minutes (no three pointers made), which is pretty good for scrubs. But here is the real kicker with 1:05 remaining, two consecutive Technical Fouls are called on two different Phoenix players who are both ejected. No time comes off the clock, 4 technical free throws are all made and I end up hitting a 214 total. Wow! It truly is never over in the NBA especially if you have the same bet as the referees.

P.S. Sereta voted out at the last tribal council. (Note: 37 points scored by Okla, and 25 by Phoenix in the 4th, could not find what the techs were about.)

Tonight’s bet:

Boston Celtics +1.5 vs. San Antonio Spurs ($55 to win $50)

Duncan, Parker, Ginobili, are all probable scratches for this one and even if one or two play they will not 100%. Take the Celts in this one despite being on the road.

Lines Today for Saturday’s Final Four
Butler Favored by 2.5 over VCU Over/Under is 133.5 (Same as yesterday, three days no change)
Kentucky Favored by 2.5 over UConn Over /Under is 140 (Same as yesterday, two days no change)

Stats:
Record 16-12
Best Bets 4-2
Win Percentage: 57.14%
Kitty Total = $1,056.43

Sportsbook
Profit/Loss -($86.80)

Poker & Casino
Profit/Loss + $28.00


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Suburban Crack Epidemic Sweeps Across America

Posted on March 30, 2011

angry birdsI have lost friends. I have lost family members. I have seen the horror that this plague can bring and the path of destruction it leaves behind. Work commitments missed, children ignored, never on time for anything. If you know someone affected by this vial virus you know these symptoms. The faint caw-caw sounds being secretly muffled behind bathroom doors. The sore fingers and numb elbows. The classic wide eyed glassy look from being up til all hours with no concept of real time. The lack of eating or drinking. The constant battery life monitoring. Cut off from friends and family (especially around the holidays). Ignoring calls and texts that interrupt the addiction. Even when not under the influence it dominates. Dreams of falling structures at night. Viewing your children’s Lego’s in an unhealthy way. Fascination with rubber bands and Y shaped sticks on the ground. A new appreciation for boomerang’s and Frisbee. It is everywhere. People are doing it on planes in droves. Coffee shops, convenience store lines, even at the DMV (a real problem there). Is there no end? With newer, better samples being handed out to keep the addict coming back for more. Even larger clearer delivery devices are being mass produced. When will the government step in here? Something must be done!

So I was successful with the Bruins bet last night and I must say I think I nailed this one pretty good in terms of my explanation (see Archive page 3/29/11). I have reviewed some NBA games for tonight and found one with a contrarian angle:

Oklahoma City Thunder at Phoenix Suns Over 212 ($55 to win $50)

So both teams played last night, Oklahoma City at home winning in OT versus Golden State with Durant playing 49 minutes! They now travel to Phoenix for this game. Phoenix played at Sacramento losing by 3 and now travel back home for this game. This combo of both teams traveling, both played last night, would make one think that there will be tired legs, poor shooting and the under a good play. The contrarian view is that defense will be non existent and this could be a score fest. These two teams have met three times prior this year with totals of 223, 218, and 240 (OT, 212 regulation). I like the over for a small bet.

As you can see below no change in the lines for the big games Saturday. I have still made no decision on these yet but the research continues, stayed tuned.

Lines Today for Saturday’s Final Four
Butler Favored by 2.5 over VCU Over/Under is 133.5 (Same as yesterday)
Kentucky Favored by 2.5 over UConn Over /Under is 140 (Same as yesterday)

Stats:
Record 15-12
Best Bets 4-2
Win Percentage: 55.55%
Kitty Total = $1,006.43

Sportsbook
Profit/Loss -($136.80)

Poker & Casino
Profit/Loss + $28.00

(Disclosure Notice: I have three stars in all levels, all versions, all holidays. I have all the Golden Eggs. I check for updates daily. Feel free to ask for assistance but You Tube Pretty much has it all. Caw-Caw).


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Hockey…Real Or Fake?

Posted on March 29, 2011

hockey real or fakeThere has been a debate raging in the minds of many sports fans for years as to whether hockey is as scripted as the WWE. I for one believe it is. There is no way a goal can be scored past a six foot plus man in 150 extra pounds of grossly over-sized padding, while standing in a five foot net unless he just lets it in. If that does not convince you ponder this: Every once in a while when the crowd is nearing REM sleep a fight “naturally” breaks out between two “goons” who have been talking smack about each other in front of a camera and have history of bad blood. That sounds a little like Hulk Hogan and the Iron Sheik if you ask me. Still not convinced? The sport is shown on the same channels as WWE, how bout that! Need more… the regular season in the NHL is like attending a local circuit wrestling match in New Hampshire, non of it matters until the big Wrestle Mania event (i.e NHL playoffs). That is why the 8th seed usually wins the Stanley Cup… everyone loves the underdog, it makes for good TV that results in a whopping 1.2 share rating. Hockey is on a comeback, last years finals beat out “Deadliest Catch” episode 3 by a full 0.2 Neilson points. That’s like 20,000 people!

OK, so I am not a fan. Never have, never will be. I have always said to people who ask me about hockey; to call me when its the Bruins in game 7 of the Stanley Cup Finals in OT, then I will watch…maybe. I just never got into it. It is by far the worst sport to watch on TV. Yes, HD has made it better, but its like putting make-up on Oprah…its still ugly. I do not begrudge those who do love it, to each their own, its just not for me. I also think that the reason hockey struggles financially a little is that it has very few fair weather fans. You are either a Hockey person or you are not. There does not seem to be a group of bandwagon jumpers like you see in other sports. You need the pink hat Red Sox fans to survive these days.

Anyway, enough about lameness and boredom, lets move on. Below I have updated the lines for the Final Four games this Saturday. This is an effective way to see where “the smart money is going” as the old saying goes. However I watched, not to long ago, a “60 Minutes” segment about a massive sports bettor who has killed it in Vegas for years. In this report it shows him laying hundreds of thousands on a bet early in the day or week just so the line will move to where he wants it, then betting twice that amount on the other side. So you cannot always just go with the “smart money” theory. (Warning, experienced bettors can skip the next two sentence’s) So below you see that the only change was the UConn/Kentucky Over/Under bet went down from 140.5 to 140. So what this means is that a larger portion of money was bet on the under 140.5 number, so the bookmaker has to change the line to try to entice bettors to bet the Over. This creates even money on both sides so no matter what happens the bookmaker collects the 10% vig from the losing side.

I will continue to do this during the week so as to track where the lines are going for these games. I may even make an early bet if I feel the line is right.

Lines on 3/28/11
Butler favored by 2.5 over VCU Over/Under is 133.5
Kentucky favored by 2 over UConn Over/Under is 140.5

Lines Today
Butler Favored by 2.5 over VCU Over/Under is 133.5 (Same as yesterday)
Kentucky Favored by 2.5 over UConn Over /Under is 140 (Over/Under down 0.5)

One night of no action was enough, and I do see a line I really like and I am convinced that with my superior knowledge and study of this sport, I will cash a ticket on this one. So here it is:

Boston Bruins vs. Chicago Blackhawks Under 5.5 goals scored ($60 to win 50)

The Blackhawks are coming of a road victory last night against the Detroit Red Wings 3-2. They are struggling to make the playoffs and are in eighth place. The coach said that the game against Detroit was “like a playoff game for us”. They will be drained after that game and the travel to Boston. In addition I just don’t think the Bruins offense is that good.

Wish me luck, maybe you could send a comment on the Blog page when the game is over so you can tell me what happened?

Stats:
Record 14-12
Best Bets 4-2
Win Percentage: 53.84%

Sportsbook
Profit/Loss -($186.80)

Poker & Casino
Profit/Loss + $28.00


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Keep Moving, Keep Moving Nothing To See Here….

Posted on March 28, 2011

keep movingI appreciate your coming by today. The impulse to see carnage is truly unique to the human race. In the animal kingdom creatures are not there just to look at a wounded or dead animal, they are there to feed and scavenge. Humans however are there just to look and think to themselves “glad that’s not me”. Well, I hate to disappoint but this is a minor fender bender, no blood, no ambulance, you just slowed down for no reason and now your going to be late for work. If I sound bitter its only the remnants of the pill I swallowed yesterday still stewing in my system. I feel much better now. The sun is shining, spring is coming, and there are three games left in this tourney to bet on. So lets begin with a few observation that came to me during these beat downs:

- I hate that I hate Shaka Smart. Here is a 33 year old coach who has taken a team from a play-in game, just to get in the field of 64, to the final four. The guy can coach and motivate for sure. My hate is not for having bet against them twice, losing both times, but because he is really smarmy. Do you get what I am saying here, there is something about this guy that makes me think when he leaves to go to Alabama or where ever he lands that the next headline will not be about returning to the final four, but about the intern who is suing for misconduct. Am I the only one who feels this? OK, so maybe the losses contribute a little… but the cockiness that Smart has that is so clearly absent in Brad Stevens at Butler is annoying. Even his name is cocky.

- Does someone at Kansas have T-Rex arms? It seems that Kansas can pay for players who are just good enough to get to the Sweet 16 or Elite 8, but they won’t reach deep into those pockets to get any further. Calapari would never have accepted a job at Kansas for this reason alone.

- Lesley Visser is so creepy. Her face looks so tight it looks like it will snap off and fly into the camera at any moment. I know I have said this before but it needs to be said again.

- Lookout Tom Crean, Indiana is going to make a move. They cannot have the best coach in their state be at Butler and not with them.

- 20/20 hindsight: Why would youth at Kentucky be a problem for Calapari? All he ever has is one year and done type players so dealing with and getting freshman to play like men is his forte. This guy is a final four machine. Umass? Memphis? Of course…Kentucky should make sure they do not glue the trophy down in the case if they win as it will be removed after a year or two in grand Calapari style.

So what have we learned. I went 0-2 yesterday with a best bet loss thrown in for good measure. I am 1-7 in my last 8 picks. I still have a winning record but the Kitty is in the red due to consecutive $220 to win 200 best bet losses versus earlier best bet wins that were only $110 to win 100. I will most likely step out this week and make some bets on some non college games this week prior to the games on Saturday. Speaking of which here is a look at some early lines for these two games:

Butler favored by 2.5 over VCU Over/Under is 133.5
Kentucky favored by 2 over UConn Over/Under is 140.5

Can Shaka outsmart Stevens? (that will be a headline if it hasn’t been yet)

Will crook prevail over curmudgeon in the other contest? (this will not be a headline)

Keep the faith, and spread the word.

Stats:
Record 14-12
Best Bets 4-2
Win Percentage: 53.84%

Sportsbook
Profit/Loss -($186.80)

Poker & Casino
Profit/Loss + $28.00


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Was It Over When The Germans Bombed Pearl Harbor?

Posted on March 27, 2011

….it just happened gain, lost everything I just wrote…. heading out now so I can’t redo or even recap. Here are the bets for today.

Kansas -11.5 vs. VCU ($110 to win $100)

North Carolina +1.5 vs. Kentucky ($220 to win $200)

Sorry for appears a lack of effort, but I have had some serious problems with this spellcheck and I will have fixed by tomorrow. Till then go Heels.

Stats:
Record 14-10
Best Bets 4-1
Win Percentage: 58.33%

Sportsbook
Profit/Loss +$117.30

Poker & Casino
Profit/Loss + $28.00


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I Wish I could Go Back In Time…I’d Take State

Posted on March 26, 2011

go back in time So I just finished an entire article went to hit spell check, did the spell check, hit OK and everything deleted!!!!!! So here go’s again albeit abbreviated and angry in tone no doubt. I took a bad beat down last night and had my first losing day of the tourney. I went 1-3, but with no best bets and reduced vigs the damage was kept to a minimum. The Kitty suffered a loss of $215.00. I never liked these games that much and stated as such. Well lesson learned, if the edge is not there then stay away. Not only did I go 1-3 but the Florida St. and Ohio St. games not only did not cover but lost outright! Ouch. At this point I cannot look back and dwell. I guess that goes for the article I just lost as well… I am still fuming!!!! At this point I went into a breakdown of each loss and what went wrong and ripped a few players along the way. Then I followed up with a big diatribe on Donovan and Stevens as coaches. Still so mad!!! Here are the picks:

Florida -4 vs. Butler ($220 to win $200)

Florida athletic Butler not, yadda yadda best bet.

Connecticut vs. Arizona Over 145 ($110 to win $100)

Can not choose on the spread (UConn favored by 2.5). Should be good game, lots of scoring.

“Its a time machine, Napoleon, we bought it online” Kip

Stats:
Record 14-8
Best Bets 4-0
Win Percentage: 63.63%

Sportsbook
Profit/Loss +$447.50

Poker & Casino
Profit/Loss + $28.00


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Day at A Time I Suppose

Posted on March 25, 2011

day at a timeThe run continues. 3-1 record last night for a $277.50 profit. Florida did not “destroy” as predicted, and talk about good fortune getting that game into OT to allow for the chance to cover the 3 point spread! Jimmer (BYU) is for real, what a quick first step, great acceleration, great touch. I think Red might reach out of the grave and slap Ainge is he does not find a way to get this guy someday. However in the end the speed and athleticism of Florida did win out. As for UConn Kemba Walker was crazy good. My attention was focused on the Florida best bet pick and I did not see (or hear…in a bar) to much detail on his performance. However a quick check of the box score reveals 36 point for Walker, 22 in the 2nd half, and 12 straight in the final minutes. Nuff said on that. My first Money-line pick for Butler to win outright despite being a 4.5 point underdog paid off nicely as well, as they rolled to a easy (slightly scary end) victory over the Badgers of Wisconsin. Brad Stevens game plan was absolutely flawless. Can he really stay at Butler and make them a powerhouse for years to come, or does he find his way to a Big school soon? I think he is coaching his last game for Butler tomorrow. The lone loser of the bunch comes with a spoonful of sugar on it, as Duke and Arizona went way over the 148 number to finish at 170. The bitter taste of that loss sweetened by Duke getting demolished. Sorry Cameron Crazies, take off the face-paint and head back to class…dorks.

I wake up today a happy camper, but a busy beaver, as there is no rest for the weary. And yes, it is not possible to use more cliche’s in one sentence, but I am tired and typing fast. So where do we go from here? Four more big games tonight and a chance to again crack into the 2g territory. There has been some minor changes to the lines for these games from when I posted them in my 3/22/11 entry, but nothing major to speak of. These games are tougher to pick for some reason. I am not getting a great feel on these, but I am getting 50% reduced vigs this morning so here go’s:

North Carolina -4.5 vs. Marquette ($105 to win $100)

Both these teams have a bunch of quality wins against good opponents. I am not a Roy Williams fan but I feel like the Carolina front-court will out play the bigs on Marquette. Also I think the old adage that the team with the better point guard typically wins at this stage of the tourney will hold true. I hate giving 4.5 to a tough Big East team, but what are ya gonna do.

Richmond +10.5 vs. Kansas ($105 to win$100)

I just think this is too many points. Richmond has wins this year over Purdue, Temple, VCU, Wake Forest, and Seton Hall. They do not match up horribly either. I think they lose but keep it under the 10.5 number. Yes Kansas has only two losses and won 10 in a row, but Richmond has won 9 in a row as well. Plus you have to root for the spiders, cool name, 12 seed, total dog. If they can survive the big Kansas runs in the first half and keep it close coming down the stretch Kansas will tighten up and it will stay close.

Ohio St. -6 vs. Kentucky ($105 to win $100)

Of the 34 wins that Ohio State has amassed this year a large portion of them have been crushing blowouts. That means that you are not just scoring a lot of points but you are taking your opponent out of what they like to do with good defense as well. I think the youth for Kentucky shows in this game and the older wiser Buckeye’s take this going away.

Florida St. -4 vs. VCU ($105 to win $100)

This team I rode to victory in the last round and touted their “best in the nation” defense as the reason why. Well, no different here. The VCU slipper comes off. Both teams are well coached and there are a lot of good athletes on the floor for both sides. It will come down to who can make shots and get second chance opportunities and neither of those things happen much against the Seminoles D.

Three favorites, one underdog, no over/under bet, and no best bet for tonight. A 2-2 record tonight would mean my first non profit day ($10 loss) since I started this. But one cannot be negative when riding at a 72% clip. Day at a time.

Stats:
Record 13-5
Best Bets 4-0
Win Percentage: 72.22%

Sportsbook
Profit/Loss +$662.50

Poker & Casino
Profit/Loss + $28.00

Kitty Total
$1831.43


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Ahh….Juicy Fruit

Posted on March 24, 2011

juicy fruitSo what happens tonight will determine how this little project will proceed for weeks to come. I am putting $490.00 on the line with the four NCAA Tourney games tonight. if I go 0-4 the Kitty will stand at $1,063.93 (down from $1,553.93). Now if I go 4-0 I will collect $487.50 in profit and the Kitty will be at $2,041.43. Of course the most likely scenario is that I will finish somewhere in between, but the potential of a nearly one thousand dollar Kitty swing is definitely getting the blood pumping.

I think there is such a thing as over studying when it comes to big games. You can read article after article that tells you Duke will cruise to victory over Arizona. Then two minutes later read about how no one on Duke can stop Derrick Williams and Zona has a real chance. The bottom line is that no one knows for sure…it’s gambling. But I do think that as a bettor you have to grab onto certain indicators that you like to use, be well informed for sure, but not engulfed with some much info that you get bettor’s freeze. This is where you have digested so much info for each side that you are frozen and can’t make a pick. One of the most important indicators I use is to look at the entire schedule for the year of each team. Did they have common opponents? How was the strength of the competition they faced all year? What were the point totals when they won versus when they lost? This is my favorite indicator to give me an overall gut feeling and help break through any bettor’s freeze.

Without further B.S. here are the picks for tonight’s games, starting with the pick I made yesterday (see Archive page):

Connecticut -1 vs. San Diego St ($110 to win 100) I have found myself leaning towards Big East teams over the course of my betting career. It has served me pretty well especially in NCAA hoops. This year the Big East has been the whipping boy of the tourney. Not only did 9 of 11 get knocked out already, but the sports writers are now all claiming that there never should have been 11 teams from the Big East to begin with. Well let’s see if the Big East cream has risen to the top. This win or loss is determined by one factor alone and that is Kemba Walker. Have you seen this guy? If he plays well I win, not, and I lose, it’s that simple. I think he plays well.

Florida -3 vs. BYU ($220 to win $200)
Did you notice the gap in speed and athleticism between the players on Florida St. versus ND in the previous round? It was astonishing how ND looked like boys playing men at times in that game. I see the same thing happening here. I don’t want to use the term blow out, so I will just say that Florida will…destroy (that works) BYU in my best bet pick of the day.

Duke vs. Arizona Under 148 ($110 to win $100)
First off this number jumped quite a bit in two days (again see Archive 3/22/11 entry), going from 144.5 to 148. That intrigued me so I took a close look at the numbers. Lets assume that Duke as a 8.5 point favorite is going to win the game and Arizona will lose. With that assumption in place I then looked at Duke’s wins over the course of this season over quality opponents’ (other tourney teams), and came up with an average of 74.1 points scored. I then looked at Arizona’s losses over the course of this season to quality opponets’ and came up with an average of 67.2 points scored. Totaled up that equals 141.3 total points. Is this crazy? We will see.

Butler to win outright vs. Wisconsin ($50 to win $87.50) Money Line = +175
Brad Stevens is God. Final game last year, Sweet 16 this year… from the Horizon League? He lost his best player to the draft Gordon Hayward (who is a non factor in the NBA), but still made it this far. I think they can win this game outright and keep this Butler media bus moving. I think this is the best team Butler and Stevens could have hoped to face at this stage and I think the game plan will be the difference. I do worry about rebounding being an issue to be truthful and only bet $50 on this money line. Will I regret not taking the extra 4.5 points?

There it is. Will I break through to the 2g’s level with a sweep, bust that sink through the window bars and never look back? Or will I be shocked into a veggie state and be at a kitty low point?

….Medication Time…..Medication Time.


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Do You Have Trouble Keeping Or Setting Limits?

Posted on March 23, 2011

So I had limited TiVo options to choose from last night. This included a saved “127 Hours” that had already been watched twice, “The Town” which was watched once and is strictly being saved for the wife, and two “Modern Family” episodes (again saved for the wife, although I watch it as well, and it’s pretty entertaining). As a result I found myself watching the tail end of the IFC show “Portlandia” with Fred Armisen from SNL. I was intrigued enough to grab a season pass in order to check out a few, or at least one full episode before making a final decision. Once this was over it lead right into the now cult favorite “Freaks and Geeks”. I have meant to catch this before what with all the talk about how it was “before its time”, created by Judd Apatow, and staring young versions of Seth Rogan, James Franco (“127Hours” btw), and Jason Siegal. I have to say despite it being a little cornballish, especially when dealing with the younger dorks group (none of which have carried onto major success like the previous mentioned group), it was a fairly decent, funny, and well written representation of early to mid eighties middle school/high school life. I set this up for some future TiVo recordings as well, but we will see, jury still deliberating.

While on the TV train: About ten years ago where I worked, I had cause to deal with a company on several occasions that now has its own reality show. Airing on Wednesday’s at 10 PM on the Travel Channel is “Deathwish Movers”. This company was hired by our’s countless times as the third party specialty mover of typically piano’s out of high end apartments in Boston. They had a reputation of being easy to deal with, reliable, and never said no to a job no matter what the crazy circumstances. I missed the first episode but I have set the TiVo on this as well and will be checking it out tonight.

So why the big TV talk, what does this have to do with betting/sports/manly endeavors? Well because none of what I watched last night were favorites or all that engrossing really, I found myself drawn to my computer and my online betting site. Not to review the lines on tomorrows games again, but to play some online No Limit Texas Hold’em. I first sat down at a $10 six man sit & go. This is where you pay $10.50 ($0.50 is the sites take per player) to sit down with 5 other players each starting with 1500 chips. The blinds start at 20/40 but go up every 7 minutes. This is because it is impossible on my site to find an old fashion 10 or 15 minute blind structure. Everything is rush poker this, speed poker that, turbo bla bla. These faster games mean more money for the site so they have almost done away with normal blind structures. Needless to say I blow the $10.50 by getting knocked out fourth (you have to finish 1st or 2nd in a six man game to win any money). I refuse to go into a bad beat story, lets just say I was the percentage favorite on the hand that I got eliminated on. Having not satisfied my poker jones with this loss I joined a $36.50 six man sit & go that pays $147 for 1st and $63 for 2nd. I finish 3rd…. So now the Kitty is down $47.00 from this little adventure. Now I am not happy and damaging the Kitty has bummed me out, so its time for bed.

….Or I could go to the online casino side of my site? Maybe win a few quick bets to get back what I lost? Is this a good idea? Why not I convince myself! I go to the roulette table and bet $25.00 on Even and it comes up 28 red for the win. One more time can’t hurt; after all I am up $25.00 right? This time I bet $25.00 on Black and it comes up 33 Black. Ok, two for two, and what do you know 33 came up, gotta bet once more for Larry right? This time I bet on the 1-18 space and it comes up 9 red. Three in a row, I am rolling now, I could do this all night… and I have. However something stopped me dead in my tracks. It was like someone held up a mirror while I was chowing a greasy burger with hot juice dripping from my chin. I was disgusted with myself and logged out immediately. So as a result of losing $47.00 in Poker and winning $75.00 in roulette the Kitty now stands at $1,553.93.

As for the games tomorrow there is one game I want to lock in now because I like the number where it is at and I fear possible movement. So here it is:

Connecticut -1 vs. San Diego St ($110 to win 100)

I have found myself leaning towards Big East teams over the course of my betting career. It has served me pretty well especially in NCAA hoops. This year the Big East has been the whipping boy of the tourney. Not only did 9 of 11 get knocked out already, but the sports writers are now all claiming that there never should have been 11 teams from the Big East to begin with. Well let’s see if the Big East cream has risen to the top. This win or loss is determined by one factor alone and that is Kemba Walker. Have seen this guy? If he plays well I win, not, and I lose, it’s that simple. I think he plays well.

I am not making this a best bet, but I am upping the bet amount. The rest of the picks for Thursday’s games will be out tomorrow AM. Check back then.

Stats:
Record 10-4
Best Bets 3-0
Win Percentage: 71.42%

Sportsbook
Profit/Loss +$385.00

Poker & Casino
Profit/Loss + $28.00


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Don’t Know Much About History

Posted on March 22, 2011
records for season starting September 2000

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What you are looking at above is a printed piece of paper that I scanned and uploaded that has been in a drawer since January 28th of 2001. This was the current status of all my posted bets during the first (non online) run of Ross Vs. The Loss. Again for a little more detailed history on that see the first entry on the Archive page (“Welcome I Am Back From The Dead”) . What is striking to notice right off the bat is the lack of success for NCAA Basketball. This was regular season play not tourney time, but still that’s not encouraging to revisit. I also notice that I bet bigger amounts back then, which once I build the Kitty up a little more I expect the bets to increase along with it.

As you can see I bet pretty much anything, but have focused on Football both NFL and NCAA. I am looking forward to the Masters as I always have some good action on that and will be posting on all of that here this year. In looking at this sheet I have noticed that my new favorite sport both from a fan/viewing perspective as well as a betting one is absent. That would be the UFC ladies and gentlemen. If you have not gotten into it, well I feel for you. If you have spent one moment of your time on a boxing match in the last five years and not seen a UFC event then I don’t understand you as a human. This sport is crazy fun to watch, has wild money lines that can be taken advantage of, and almost always puts on a good show for your $44.99 PPV price. That seems like a lot of dough for some guys grappling on the ground who you are not familiar with, but trust me its worth every penny. When you get a boxing match on PPV (not that anyone has in forever…but) you only really get the main event. One decent match that most likely is not really the top two in the sport because of belt conflicts or promoters B.S. is all you get for your cash. The UFC events have 8-10 matches that take place during an event day and when you buy the PPV you get the two or three big ones plus whatever were the other 2-3 best matches of the day. The fight quality and skill of these matches are awesome. I got Rua Vs. Jones on PPV last night on Comcast…. Wow some really good stuff. No results given here, no spoiler… get it and see.

Sorry, I digress onto UFC every now and then. I have been in deep study mode with these NCAA Thursday games and all the lines are out including Friday. Here is how the currently appear on the site I use:

Thursday Games:

UConn favored by 1 vs. San Diego St Over/Under 130
Florida favored by 3 vs. BYU Over/Under 149.5
Duke favored by 8.5 vs. Arizona Over/Under 144.5
Wisconsin favored by 4.5 vs. Butler Over/Under 124

Friday Games:

North Carolina favored by 4.5 vs. Marquette Over/Under 149.5
Kansas favored by 10.5 vs. Richmond Over/Under 138
Ohio St. Favored by 5.5 vs. Kentucky Over/Under 140
Florida St. favored by 3.5 vs. VCU Over/Under 132

These are interesting match ups for sure. I like several of these games. I am not being offered any bet early discount on vigs and I do not think these lines will change much by tomorrow. So I will hold off for now on any selections. I will post at least my Thursday picks by noon tomorrow if not sooner. Keep checking in, again thanks to all, and spread the word.


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