Hockey…Real Or Fake?

Posted on March 3, 2011

hockey real or fakeThere has been a debate raging in the minds of many sports fans for years as to whether hockey is as scripted as the WWE. I for one believe it is. There is no way a goal can be scored past a six foot plus man in 150 extra pounds of grossly over-sized padding, while standing in a five foot net unless he just lets it in. If that does not convince you ponder this: Every once in a while when the crowd is nearing REM sleep a fight “naturally” breaks out between two “goons” who have been talking smack about each other in front of a camera and have history of bad blood. That sounds a little like Hulk Hogan and the Iron Sheik if you ask me. Still not convinced? The sport is shown on the same channels as WWE, how bout that! Need more… the regular season in the NHL is like attending a local circuit wrestling match in New Hampshire, non of it matters until the big Wrestle Mania event (i.e NHL playoffs). That is why the 8th seed usually wins the Stanley Cup… everyone loves the underdog, it makes for good TV that results in a whopping 1.2 share rating. Hockey is on a comeback, last years finals beat out “Deadliest Catch” episode 3 by a full 0.2 Neilson points. That’s like 20,000 people!

OK, so I am not a fan. Never have, never will be. I have always said to people who ask me about hockey; to call me when its the Bruins in game 7 of the Stanley Cup Finals in OT, then I will watch…maybe. I just never got into it. It is by far the worst sport to watch on TV. Yes, HD has made it better, but its like putting make-up on Oprah…its still ugly. I do not begrudge those who do love it, to each their own, its just not for me. I also think that the reason hockey struggles financially a little is that it has very few fair weather fans. You are either a Hockey person or you are not. There does not seem to be a group of bandwagon jumpers like you see in other sports. You need the pink hat Red Sox fans to survive these days.

Anyway, enough about lameness and boredom, lets move on. Below I have updated the lines for the Final Four games this Saturday. This is an effective way to see where “the smart money is going” as the old saying goes. However I watched, not to long ago, a “60 Minutes” segment about a massive sports bettor who has killed it in Vegas for years. In this report it shows him laying hundreds of thousands on a bet early in the day or week just so the line will move to where he wants it, then betting twice that amount on the other side. So you cannot always just go with the “smart money” theory. (Warning, experienced bettors can skip the next two sentence’s) So below you see that the only change was the UConn/Kentucky Over/Under bet went down from 140.5 to 140. So what this means is that a larger portion of money was bet on the under 140.5 number, so the bookmaker has to change the line to try to entice bettors to bet the Over. This creates even money on both sides so no matter what happens the bookmaker collects the 10% vig from the losing side.

I will continue to do this during the week so as to track where the lines are going for these games. I may even make an early bet if I feel the line is right.

Lines on 3/28/11
Butler favored by 2.5 over VCU Over/Under is 133.5
Kentucky favored by 2 over UConn Over/Under is 140.5

Lines Today
Butler Favored by 2.5 over VCU Over/Under is 133.5 (Same as yesterday)
Kentucky Favored by 2.5 over UConn Over /Under is 140 (Over/Under down 0.5)

One night of no action was enough, and I do see a line I really like and I am convinced that with my superior knowledge and study of this sport, I will cash a ticket on this one. So here it is:

Boston Bruins vs. Chicago Blackhawks Under 5.5 goals scored ($60 to win 50)

The Blackhawks are coming of a road victory last night against the Detroit Red Wings 3-2. They are struggling to make the playoffs and are in eighth place. The coach said that the game against Detroit was “like a playoff game for us”. They will be drained after that game and the travel to Boston. In addition I just don’t think the Bruins offense is that good.

Wish me luck, maybe you could send a comment on the Blog page when the game is over so you can tell me what happened?

Stats:
Record 14-12
Best Bets 4-2
Win Percentage: 53.84%

Sportsbook
Profit/Loss -($186.80)

Poker & Casino
Profit/Loss + $28.00

Categories: sports-commentary


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