Nobody Can Eat 50 Eggs!

Posted on March 21, 2011

For those of you who are new to this site I implore you to go to the new Archive page and read from the top. Then come back here and you will understand the chest puffing and backslapping self praise that is about to take place. Bottom line: I killed it!

There were 48 NCAA Tournament games played over the course of the last 4 days. I placed wagers on a hand selected 14 of those games, and posted the picks prior to tip time on this site (again see Archive page). I was right on 10 of the 14. I did not have a losing day. I came out of the gate 4-0 for a $200.oo profit. I followed with a 2-2 finish on Day 2, but with a best bet play of $100 on one of those picks I ended up $42.00. Day 3 I was 2-1 with another best bet play winner for a profit of $97.50. And yesterday I was again 2-1 for a $45.00 profit. Speaking of yesterday, my two winners (I hate North Carolina btw) Marquette and Florida St. did not even need the points I was getting as both won outright! Sick! Now that’s the way to do it (should have gone money line you say…. those will come). So if you do not bet a lot you may think “10-4? big deal, I was on a high school team that went 18-0 one year”…..yadda yadda shut it. 10-4 is hard to do against the spread no question about it and stands as a great four days. The Kitty started this tourney with $1,141.23 in available funds to bet with and now stands at $1,526.23 for a profit of $385.00. Now this is not big money I am betting here and I realize that. It really is about the action not the money. Having a bet on a game (especially college tourney hoops) is so much fun. The action is great and yes winning helps. Winner, Winner, Ross Dinner!

Now looking forward a bit… This sweet 16 is very interesting. Remaining we have three number 1 seeds, three number 2 seeds, two number 3 seeds, and four double digit seeds! There are the solid big names, the two finalist from last year, the little guys, and the new comers (San Diego St). By the way, does anyone know what to make of San Diego St.? I have watched some of their games and they look really good but I have no confidence laying money for, or against them right now. I may have to bet them soon and it frightens me for some reason. I have to study these games some more and will post some picks prior to Thursdays games. Here is a look at the lines as they currently stand:

UConn -1 vs. San Diego St. Over/ Under 129.5
Florida -2.5 vs. BYU Over /Under 149
Wisconsin -4 vs. Butler Over/Under 123.5

These are the only games posted as of this morning. The others will appear later today and tomorrow on my betting website once injuries status is updated.

Due to the response this site has gotten I will be posting a new entry here each day during this tournament even if it is not a game day. Of course I will announce when I lock in any bet as I do like to grab early lines before they change to much. I may even make some selections later today or tonight. But for now I need to ponder these lines and wait for the others. Thank you to the faithful readers it has been a fun week. I hope some of you have laid some lumber on these games and are in the black with me.

Stats: Record 10-4
Best Bets 3-0
Win Percentage: 71.42%

Profit/Loss +$385.00


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Chicago, New York, Detriot, its all on the same street.

Posted on March 20, 2011

Today’s entry will be a bit abbreviated (dam family obligations). OK so West Virginia did not live up to billing and could not hang around the 3.5 point margin. Florida/UCLA over was a sweat for sure, without a few well timed 3 pointers toward the end I would have been looking at a loss here. The eyes were not exactly closed for UConn as they did cover, but Cinncy proved to be better coached than expected.
Despite the close shaves the result was a 2-1 day with a profit of $97.50, and another best bet winner. In looking at todays docket I have quickly determined there is not a best bet for today. No super strong feeling on any of the spreads or over/under’s. There are three that I do find worthy of 1 unit bets (by the way site stopped offering me discounted vigs):

North Carolina vs. Washington under 159 ($55 to win $50)
Going to the well again on a high number involving North Carolina. The previous bet a total loss, one may ask “why again”? NC shot really well and so did Long Island in that loss (first half anyway). Washington will provide better defense and has some size to contest shots better than Long Island.

Marquette +4.5 vs. Syracuse ($55 to win $50)
Big East battle royal here. I think it will be close the whole way and in a situation like that you want to take the points. Also Jardine for the Orangmen is a possible scratch or at least may not be himself out there. This could be key.

Florida St +5.5 vs. Notre Dame ($55 to win 50)
All signs point to ND winning this game. Big East player of the year, smart team, well coached. The only thing Florida St has going for it is the best defense in the country allowing just 36% shooting. Will it be enough? Yes.

Other News and Notes:
I will have a big recap entry that will be posted here on Monday AM. So check that out. Also during the no game days I will work on site enhancement as well. Thanks to all of you who have checked this out so far, the word is spreading!
Stats:

Overall Record 8-3

Best Bets 3-0

Win Percentage %72.72

Profit/Loss +$339.50


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Still Truckin

Posted on March 19, 2011

So I guess you can’t win them all. I was 5-0 and a shot away from 6-0 when Zona just could not cover the 5.5 points. At one point I was actually rooting for OT to give me a better chance to cover. I should have known better when I said that giving points in the first round is not a good idea. As for the NC/Long Island game I was just flat out wrong, yes NC won easy but LI scored a bunch in the first half and the two teams had 95 by halftime making my bet a loser early.
The bright side of finishing 2-2 on the day is that I made a $42 profit because of the best bet play of Oakland netting me $100 and the Illinois team killing it. Not to mention the reduced vig amount does not hurt either.

The Kitty stands at $1383.23 with now only eight games to choose from. The good part is that we have some very recent history and impression to go on when making a walk to the ticket window this secound time around.

Round two tends to have a reduction in the upset factor as the goods teams have either been scared in round one themselves or watched other good teams fall. They are playing in the same building as before, staying in the same hotel, and start to feel a bit more comfortable and able to focus on their normal game against teams they have actually seen on TV before and have some film to review. As a bettor you cannot let a winning bet on a previous team cloud your opinion going forward. Each game is a unique set of circumstances, like every spin of a roulette wheel the outcome is random, even if it has been red the last 10 spins the same odds exsist for red or black on spin 11. Do not fall in love with a team, fall in love with stats, study, gut feelings, and a dash of common sense.

Time for the picks:

West Virginia +3.5 vs. Kentucky ($52.50 to win $50)
This pick is based on the Huggins factor. I like him as a tourney coach. In his post-game press conference you would have thought he was the losing coach based on his dour yet calm demeanor. He is taking Belichick pills, he has been here many times, he is not impressed yet. Also I saw Kentucky play and I am not sold on them, I think they have holes.

Florida vs. UCLA over 131 ($55 to win $50)

Not brain surgery here, just two teams that can score. Florida rolled and looked sharp, UCLA is a west coast school with west coast high school recruites that are always fond of windmill defense so they can get back to shooting the ball as quick as possible. There are reasons this number is 131 and that may be cause for concern here but the gut won on this one and I am sticking with it.

Connecticut -3.5 vs. Cincinnati ($105 to win $100)
Not every day will have a best bet. If that is the case I would in effect be forced to pick one sometimes just to “have” a best bet, and that’s not smart betting. However, I love this one and it is the best bet. This is force vs. farce as far as I am concerned. UConn will cover this with its eyes closed. I am leaving myself open for major ridicule (see the NC/Long Island bet), but I am not going to be wishy washy on this site.

Good Luck…..

Other news and notes:

The site builder I have used is nice and has some great features, but I am a rookie and this is a “learn as I go” situation. I do want my most recent stuff to appear at the top so you the faithful do not have to scroll to get to the good stuff. I should have this figured out soon, but I am on the road (attempting to spring ski on very little snow) at the moment and this laptop I am on is maddening to say the least. New Feature: Get to know the author: (TV Time)
Answer:
1. The Wire
2. Sopranos
3. Curb Your Enthusiasm

Question: What are the top 3 HBO shows of all time?
P.S. Honorable Mention: Deadwood

Stats:

Overall Record 6-2

Best Bets 2-0

Profit/Loss +$242.00


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Plumping Up Nicely!

Posted on March 18, 2011

Well, what can I say, a 4-0 start is a pretty sweet way to begin this tourney. To toot my horn a little more lets look at the numbers for these bets a little:

West Virginia -2.5 vs. Clemson: West Virginia wins by 8
Princeton vs. Kentucky under 130.5: Total comes in at 116
BYU vs. Wofford under 147: Total comes in at 140
Gonzaga +1.5 vs. St. John’s: Gonzaga wins by 15

What this points out is not only did I win these four bets, which is hard enough, but they weren’t even bad sweats. With 4 bets you would think that at least one of them would have been a down to the wire- last shot goes in and I lose, a miss and I win type of thing. But this was not the case. this was about as smooth a ride as you will ever see. Keeping it going is a different story.

On a sad and pathetic note, Louisville my long shot to win $2500 choked it out hard yesterday. Pitino looks tired and old and he just may be coaching that way as well. The Kitty stands at $1,341.23 and we have 16 more glorious games to choose from today, so with out further adu:

Oakland +10.5 vs. Texas ($105 to win 100)

First off I would again like to thank my site for offering half price discounts on the vig today for all spread bets (not over/unders). Thats is why this bet is 105 not the normal 110 price. I really like Oakland here, never been a big Rick Barnes guy come tourney time and this Oakland team is fast, athletic, and can score. Will they win, maybe but I will still take the points on this best bet and run.

Arizona -5.5 vs. Memphis ($52.50 to win $50)

This is not your Calipari Memphis Tigers anymore. Almost no one left from the recruting (paying) days of Calipari and very young, this wild bunch will turn it over early and often. Zona has finally moved on from the Lute Olsen era and has a new look that I like. For the record I am not a fan of giving points in the first round of the “anything can happen tourney” but this one smells right.

Long Island vs. North Carolina under 159 ($55 to win $50)I was tempted to make this my best bet but there can only be one. Two fast paced high scoring teams means there is going to be a tone of points right? This may be true when its two teams of equal talent but a closer look at the numbers show that in Long Island’s 5 losses they only went over 159 one time. In the only game against another team in this tourney (St Peter’s) they lost and the total was 127. Take the under and look for a route that slows down the scoring once the garbage time starts. Other topics for a few quick observations
Holy good god Lesley Visser’s body was snached in an apparent invasion of some kind. She looks like an alien… in drag. I would sue my plastic surgen and botox lady asap.

You have to love the good hearted and fun banter between Verne Lundquist and the Onion man. I must say though that these double headers are tough for the old guys. Verne was actually lost out there a few times and really had no clue what was going on, here is a sample:

Lundquist: “what? a foul… oh wait no, its a turnover…. no it was a foul….”
Raftery: “actually Verne it’s a timeout” Oops!

Also great with these two is every broadcast ends with some sort of excited discussion by Raftery about how much he is going to drink after the game. Last night was no exception with Verne saying “you have been very good on St Patty’s day of all days” Raftery says “this game is almost over and I have plans for sure”. Look out hotel bar here comes a thirsty man…with alacrity!!

Last but not least, this every game on live (TBS, TNS CBS, TruTV) thing is the best. Brings back memories of having three weeks school vacation in March (Catholic School) and sitting in front of the TV and flipping all day between games and correcting brackets. Then they went to the CBS only format which blew. But now we are back to the way it should be and the games are on and I am jacked and pumped….god I hope I don’t go 0-4 today!

Site notes: I think I have added a blog comments page so check that out up top. Still very new to this so bare with.

Spread the word and pass on the site link.

Stats:

Record 4-0

Profit/Loss = +$200.00


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The Goose is getting Fat!

Posted on March 17, 2011

It’s that special time of year again, and one can only wonder where in this bracket bucket of fun is the next George Mason or Butler. The total bracket buster that no one saw coming. Well, in the wagering world, the perspective is “who cares”. The reason: every day( in our world) thier are always upsets and great wins…. vs. the spread. This is where the action lay and the feeling of picking a winner outweighs seeing a George Mason make the final four any day…. at least for me.

So the post Super Bowl kitty stands at $1,166.23 (fictional dollars of course) after some small sit & go’s losses at the poker side . By the way very nice of this site to allow your betting account to so easliy be avalible for live poker as well. The best combo I have found. Note: we can grapevine the name later. I have one pending wager made on November 16th 2010 that Louisville would win the national title this year. I just checked in on this bet today after having told some people that I bet $70 to wil $7,000, but alas I was wrong and only bet $25 to win $2,500. Same odds but I wimped out on the bet amount. Still, kind of looking forward to how this one develops.

So that makes the avalible balance $1,141.23. I looked today and found nothing that jumped of the page in this first day of 16 freaking games! As a result I am going with what I call “one unit bets”. This is a bet of $55 to win $50. I can make 20 bets of this amount and lose every one in a row and still not be at the dreaded goose egg. This is a solid strategery that I used the entire NFL season with success and I never varied once. turned $300 into $660 and bet it all for the year end win.

However if you really want to win big you have to bet big, and I am not going to be Knish but rather Worm in this tourney and let things ride when it feels right. But this is not that day, as I said nothing jumped at me. That being said I do like these bets:
West Virgina -2.5 vs. Clemson ($55 to win $50)
Nothing special here just like the toughness factor of the league play that West Virgina faces versus Clemson in the ACC. Despite it being in Tampa and Clemson travels better than anyone (yes even for basketball), I still think the Mountee’s cover this one.

Princeton Vs. Kentucky under 130.5 ($55 to win$50)
Nerves of the first round causes poor shooting in what is already going to be a slowish type game. I like the under in this one, and on side note: go Princeton.

BYU vs. Wofford under 147 ($55 to win $50)
I just think the Wofford is going to employ the time tested “we have no chance” stratagy of slowing the game down to a rediculous pace in an effort to throw off the BYU offence and frustrate thier star player. It can work and has, but not enough for the win or even to cover, but enough to not go over 147. This one is like playing poker with guys from the deli counter, easy money, so this gets best bet of the day status.

Gonzaga +1.5 vs. St John’s ($55 to win $50)
The Zags are back where they belong. An 11 seed with a decided home court playing in Denver. When these guys started getting 2, 3, and 4 seeds it was to much. This is where they belong and this is where I like them for action. Now I am not one who go’s against the Big East very often but I just feel like the stage for the young Redman may be a bit much, and a choke is a distinct possibilty.

Well there it is, Christmas is coming…..

**Stay tuned, updates during all betting days. Still working on site improvments to come (sorry for the spelling)


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