Timing Is Everything

Posted on April 30, 2011

MacGrubberBetween four soccer games and a live poker game in a few hours I regretfully submit another shorten entry. I got the push on the Red Sox game Over/Under bet last night. In 79 bets it is my first push. That is pretty insane when you think about it. I look at this like a train. In order for it to reverse directions it has to come to a stop first. This push is the stop and now we start going the other way. UFC is on tonight PPV at 9:00pm. I will be playing in a poker game so I will have to buy when I get home or most likly watch Sunday night. But I have to get the bets in so here they are. Also I have included my bet against the Bruins of course.

Nate Diaz To Win vs. Rory MacDonald ($115 to win $100)

Nate is a submission master and made of rubber. Even if he is getting his face beat in he can win at any moment if it gets on the ground. This is on the undercard which is shown before 9pm on Spike TV.

Vladmir Matyushenko To Win vs. Jason Brilz ($115 to win $100)

Vlad the impailer takes this one early with a vicious knock out. After all he has “shenko” in his name, he has to win.

Philadelphia Flyers -1.5 goals vs. Boston Bruins ($25 to win $55)

Bruins get out classed, skated and shot, in a route.

$255 on the line tonight, Kitty will be at $68.89 if I lose these all. i must win 2 of 3 MACGRUBER!!!!

Stats:
50/50Bets:
Record Overall = 41-37-1
Best Bets = 10-7
Win Percentage = 52.56%

Kitty Total = $323.89

Sportsbook
Profit/Loss = – ($817.54)

Long Odds Bets:
Record = 0-7
Money Invested = $275.00

Poker & Casino
Profit/Loss = + $71.00


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The Slide Continues…

Posted on April 29, 2011

the slide continuesBusy day today, I may have a 2nd posting with more bets after some study. But maybe not. I like the Red sox over 9 runs for now. This is a hot line from someone you can trust to get you the wins. 0-5 run going and 8 wins in my last 18 bets. Now thats something to hang your hat on. Still alive…Still alive.
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Over 9 Runs Total ($120 to win $100)

Stats:
50/50Bets:
Record Overall = 41-37
Best Bets = 10-7
Win Percentage = 52.56%

Kitty Total = $323.89

Sportsbook
Profit/Loss = – ($817.54)

Long Odds Bets:
Record = 0-7
Money Invested = $275.00

Poker & Casino
Profit/Loss = + $71.00


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Serenity Now…Serenity Now

Posted on April 28, 2011

long road - for the BruinsIt’s going to be a long road back. The Bruins and Boston hockey fans everywhere get the last laugh on this series. Seventeen years ago was the last time the Bruins won a game 7. I choose to go the other way when it finally happened. The flopping frenchies drop the game in OT securing both a loss for me on the game as well as the under 5 goals bet. The Red Sox decided to provide the kick in the ass as I left the building by dropping their game as well. Three bets up, three bets down and $305 gone like that. You win some, you lose some, right? Or maybe I should say; you win some, you lose a lot.

The Kitty was last seen being rushed to Mass General in critical condition. Doctors would not comment, citing medical privacy issues, but the Kitty’s agent said “it was just a mix-up of some doctor prescribed medication that caused an adverse reaction, that is all, and anything else being said is pure speculation”. Other sources have come forward saying the Kitty was seen acting wild at a club and was somehow involved in a fight with a band a black and yellow clad young men who appeared to violate the Kitty, in what one witness called a very “disturbing manner”. Police have yet to comment on the matter, but one unidentified officer did say that no investigation was pending as initial reports circulated that the Kitty was “asking for it”.

I have gotten away from the original principles of betting success. You have to go with the number you like. It’s not the game you want to watch always, or the teams you have interest in. It’s about getting the correct number to make an informed play. This will be the methodology going forward.

LA Lakers vs. New Orleans Hornets Over 183 Total Points ($55 to win 50)

There have been some low totals in this series including a 165 point game 2. But the other 4 games come in at 181, 186, 196 and 209. I think both are starting to figure out the defense’s of each club and Kobe’s supposed ankle injury is a joke. He is fine.

Keep tuning in, comeback stories are fun.

Stats:
50/50Bets:
Record Overall = 41-36
Best Bets = 10-7
Win Percentage = 53.24%

Kitty Total = $378.89

Sportsbook
Profit/Loss = – ($762.54)

Long Odds Bets:
Record = 0-7
Money Invested = $275.00

Poker & Casino
Profit/Loss = + $71.00


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Funeral At The Garden

Posted on April 27, 2011

I can’t bet hockey. I just can’t. I have no clue. I hate the game. I’m sorry, it’s the worst. Yes, I lost last night. Yes, the Bruins suck. Yes, I am frustrated. No, I did not enjoy waiting around all day today for the Cable guy, and posting this article late. I did not enjoy dealing with the website guy and not getting the answers I wanted on improvements. I am in a bad mood for sure. I did not play poker after the Bruins gag of a game, as I fell asleep with a Flatbread pizza on my lap. I am not running well right now. My win percentage is at a low. The Kitty is near a low. It’s all gloom and doom on the horizon. If the Bruins win I will be tortured with hockey talk and news for a least another two weeks. God have mercy on my sole! I have to root for them to lose. They have to lose! With my betting so bad right now, analysis and study are useless. I am betting 100% with my heart for this one. Die Bruins Die! It will be so much fun to see the long, dumb, distraught, goofy, goon faces all over the Garden as the Canadian fans wave the leaf around in the upper deck. I am actually getting excited about this…my day is turning around. Bruins lose, Celtics are moving on and I bet prop bets flawlessly, I kill the UFC bets this weekend, I win a long odds bet on the Kentucky Derby, and the Kitty has swelled above $2,000. Now that’s a positive outlook.

Montreal Canadiens to Win Game 7 vs Boston Bruins ($50 to win $77.50)

I think the Bruins play tight. Price saves a bunch and Thomas lets in a least 2. Coach is fired in the off-season and the pattern of frustration continues for Bruins fans for another year.

Montreal Canadiens vs. Boston Bruins Under 5 Goals Total ($115 to win $100)

The under bet is 5-2-2 in the last 9 meetings of these two teams. Combine that with game 7 tight play and pressure defense and the under looks real good as long as the OT bug does not bite.

Boston Red Sox To Win vs. Baltimore Orioles ($140 to win $100)

Beckett on the mound is enough said with the way he has been lately. Also the Orioles have come back to earth after a decent start. This is a Best Bet

I changed and reset the Bruins poll below, so you can submit again and we will see if the pessimistic sentiment is not just me. I did not reset the other poll so if you have voted in that you cannot do it again. No love for Gilligan’s Island? I would think that gets voted for Ginger and Maryann alone.

With $305 of my $683.89 Kitty on the line tonight there will be a funeral one way or the other if I lose them all. Wish me luck…go Habs…end my misery.

Stats:
50/50Bets:
Record Overall = 41-33
Best Bets = 10-6
Win Percentage = 55.40%

Kitty Total = $683.89

Sportsbook
Profit/Loss = – ($457.24)

Long Odds Bets:
Record = 0-7
Money Invested = $275.00

Poker & Casino
Profit/Loss = + $71.00


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How Ya Like Them Apples!

Posted on April 26, 2011

I settled down around 10:30 pm on the couch to watch the (as predicted) freak show cheer-leading segment on HBO’s Real Sports. Overzealous crazed moms abound, who apparently were all too eager to display their daughters “sport” in the worst light possible. Nice work Andrea Kramer and producers. You had a mission to make this segment as creepy as possible and you succeeded. I then TiVo-ed my way through the Spurs game and watched a very tired old team. This is the top seed in the west? A 14-0 run to start the 2nd half by Memphis! Goodnight Spurs, TiVo on super-speed and on to the Dallas game. Here Jason Kidd gets 14 assists (my bet was over 15.5 points and assists combined) but only 4 points for a total of 18 and the win. One win, one loss, with the loss being $110 and the win for $86.96. So I finish the evening down $23.04….or do I?

I then focus my late night TV attention to the previously taped National Heads-Up Poker Championship on NBC. This is week two of this (already completed) event, and will be shown on NBC at 12:00 noon on Sunday’s for the next three weeks. What makes this event interesting is that it is a bracket style event of 64 players facing single elimination. One and done of heads-up No Limit Texas Hold-em. All-in with your chips and lose the hand and you are out. NBC likes to say the “top 64 players in the world”, but this is clearly not the case. The field includes many of the tops pros for sure, but also has celebrities and casino qualifiers. So it is entirely possible to have Jason Alexander (George from Seinfeld, in case you forgot, since he has done nothing since) verses Joe bag of donuts qualifier from Arkansas, in the finals together. But this is not going to happen since it does take skill even in Heads-up play to go six rounds to win it all. There has been some noted celebrity success in this event in the past including Oral Hershiser making the great eight, and the astounding run of Shannon Elizabeth to the final four in 2007. That’s right, the same girl who flawlessly portrayed the foreign exchange student in the infamous web- cam bedroom scene in the great film classic “American Pie”. So after 2 hours of watching this I am feeling a little poker jones.

I head over to my trusty computer (the same I am sitting at now) and fire up my site (play money only of course ;) . After the sports win/loss from earlier in the night the Kitty stands at $750.89. Since I have been watching one on one Heads-up on TV I decide this is what I am looking for. Not too mention it’s getting late and Heads-up can be very quick. There is a player waiting at a table for an entry fee of $52.50 to win $100. I sit in getting 1500 chips to play with and the cards are dealt. The blinds are 10/20 and I am the small blind. I get dealt a Jack of clubs and a four of hearts and raise the pot to 40 and get called. The flop comes 10, 3, Jack. I have top pair and in heads up, that is tremendous. Raise, calls, checks, and all in’s later and I lose to pocket Kings on the first hand. Done. $52.50 gone in one hand. I sit stunned for about 60 seconds, then get up and walk away. Pocket kings…on the first hand… of heads-up? I take a break and shake it off for ten minutes or so.

After the re-group I return, determined not to donkey off all my chips in the first hand. Now the Kitty stands at $698.39 down $75.54 for the night. How do I get this back…play a $104.50 to win $200 Heads-up game that’s how. I then proceed to play a super aggressive style, raising every pot on almost every hand. It’s working as my opponent is folding a lot of hands pre-flop. I proceed to play one hundred and thirty one hands with this guy for over 45 minutes. It was an epic battle. The last 20 minutes I had the lead but could not put him away and got back to even or close many times. At one point, I have 2,500 chips to his 500 and I get a text noise on my phone. Who the hell is this? The action is moving so fast I barely have time to look as I do not want to break my rhythm of betting and show any pattern. It’s my wife:

Wife: What r u doing down there?

Me: Playing Poker

Wife: On a porn site?

Me: Goodnight

Apparently she was so into her book (The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo) that she was still up and hearing the dings and shuffles and so forth. I wanted to respond with some witty retort but I had to end the conversation due to fact that my 2,500 stack had dwindled to 1,700. I was making bad calls and bad bets so that had to end fast. I buckle down and get him down to below 400 in chips and he goes all in on a flop of 10,3,7, and I have jack ,10, so I call. He has 10,5 so he is dead unless one of the remaining three 5′s in the deck comes on the last two cards. It does not happen. The last two are a meaningless Ace and a King. I win $200 hard earned play money dollars. I head upstairs settle in and say to my wife… “you know, a poker porn site is not a bad idea”!

For the night:

773.93 start -110+86.96-52.50-104.50+200=793.89 (+19.96 on the day)

One game worth watching. One bet tonight:

Boston Bruins To Win vs. Montreal Canadians ($110 to win $100)

Again not really a hockey guy, and the poll below is close, but I think somehow they end this tonight. I think they realize they should win against this team and they play with confidence. Besides if they lose there is always Heads-up waiting for me.

Stats:
50/50Bets:
Record Overall = 41-32
Best Bets = 10-6
Win Percentage = 56.16%

Kitty Total = $793.89

Sportsbook
Profit/Loss = – ($347.54)

Long Odds Bets:
Record = 0-7
Money Invested = $275.00

Poker & Casino
Profit/Loss = + $71.00


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Put One Foot In Front Of The Other….

Posted on April 25, 2011

The only way out of a hole is one step at a time. Step one was yesterdays 2-0 victory. Luke Donald only shot -1 under at the Heritage yesterday, but it was enough to beat Jim Furyk, who exploded with a back nine 40 including two double bogey’s on the last four holes. Once that bet was in the bag I wanted to see Donald pull it off in the playoff, but Snedeker was on fire with a final round 64 to come back from 6 shots down. In the playoff he worked super fast and confident and nailed everything. I still maintain the course is a crappy birdie fest with the flattest greens on tour, but that was a good finish. Right around the same time, the Celtics were beating on the Knicks and stuffing that orange blanket down Spike Lee’s pompous yapper. I had Rondo getting over 13.5 points and it was clearly a winner all the way. He had 9 points in the first quarter and 13 at the half. This Best Bet breeze finished with 21 points. I find it interesting that my play money site that I use is now only taking $100 dollar bets or less on player proposition bets such as this one. I can get approval by talking with someone to bet more than that, but I think I will avoid any contact with customer service for now.

The Kitty stands at $773.93 at the moment. I started this betting madness with a balance of $1,141.43 on March 17th, 2011. Despite a winning record of 40-31 to this point I am down $367.50. The reason for that is simple and traceable in the Archive page. I spent $275 on “To Win the Masters” bets, almost pulling out the Ogilvy victory. I also started out making Best Bet’s at small dollar amounts and winning them, only to increase Best Bet amounts and losing some of them. Fifty six percent will not make you much money but closing in on sixty would be just fine, and that is what I intend to do.

The Boston sports scene is dead tonight, which is good for me as betting on local teams has always been a tricky thing. The classic heart vs. head battle rages on with local teams for all bettors, and I for the most part have avoided betting on them in the past. But let’s face it…it’s fun. So with no local sports, Bruins tomorrow, Celts off for about a week, Sox traveling to Baltimore, its a snoozer for local sports…unless you bet…then any game can be worthwhile.

San Antonio Spurs -1.5 vs. Memphis Grizzlies ($110 to win $100)

Spurs down 2-1 to the 8th seeded Grizzlies and playing in Memphis to a really excited crowd of tobacco chewers, who will be trying to figure out which arena door the monster truck will enter in at half time. Needless to say, the Spurs need this game bad. They are a little ding-ed up and shooting horrible from outside, but I think they focus on the paint early and then kick it out in the 2nd half for open looks, and may even win this easy…if my man Bonner gets hot.

Jason Kidd (Dallas Mavericks) Over 15.5 Combined Points & Assists ($100 to win $86.96)

Dallas is coming off blowing a 23 point lead with 13 min left to the Portland Trailblazers. The series is tied 2-2 now and this game is in Dallas. They are mentally toast right now, and may even cough this one up, but the number on Kidd for combined points and assists is very attractive especially needing a win badly, he will be in the mix quite a bit with a lot of playing time.

Side notes:

- HBO tonight at 9:00 pm has Real Sports with Bryant “snooty man” Gumbel. Most stories look like sleepers but the expose on Mini Cheerleaders between 5-8 years old looks like must see freak show TV.

- I am going to be working with a site design guy on the site this week. First and foremost will be the RSS feed issue so I can stop sending the annoying email that the site is updated. I guess from what I am told this RSS feed (once you click on it, subscribe or whatever) will update you when I have updated the site. There are a few other things as well I will be working on so stay tuned, and keep spreading the word. I am not doing ads on this site or making any money, I just like seeing the hits increase and writing about this stuff.

- If you are into Poker or just watching huge money being bet, you have to DVR High Stakes Poker on GSN and Poker after Dark on NBC. Both are great shows and the table talk is good as well.

- I am already sick of the Royal Wedding

- Upcoming events include: UFC 129 with George St. Pierre vs. Jake Shields and Lyoto Machida vs. Randy Couture, this Saturday the 30th, I will be getting this on PPV and betting this here. Also May 7th in the Kentucky Derby which apparently has sold its sole to Yum! brands (don’t forget the ! when saying Yum). This should be good as my daughter has picked the winner (not knowing any odds) 5 out of 6 years running…don’t ask.

- Still have the Bruins poll question up (below) so if you have not voted go ahead and do so. But I have added a new poll as well.

Stats:
50/50Bets:
Record Overall = 40-31
Best Bets = 10-6
Win Percentage = 56.33%

Kitty Total = $773.93

Sportsbook
Profit/Loss = – ($367.50)

Long Odds Bets:
Record = 0-7
Money Invested = $275.00

Poker & Casino
Profit/Loss = + $28.00


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I Need A Miracle!

Posted on April 24, 2011

I have about three more days left and then I will have to rise from the dead with a new deposit if I don’t start winning. Lost all three yesterday during travel day. Kitty is approaching an all time low at $593.93. I thought I would be able to contribute more to today’s article, forgetting it is Easter Sunday, which involves Mass, brunch, etc. Tomorrow is back to normal for sure.

I am one of those bettors that has always done well with the short stack and facing adversity. Lets see if that can hold up.

Luke Donald To Win vs. Jim Furyk ($125 to win 100) Final Round Only

Going with Luke again. These two are the final pairing should be fun to watch these guys throw lawn darts at this joke of a PGA Tour stop. Donald had a double yesterday, played poorly, and still came a birdie attempt away on 18 from tying Furyk yesterday which would have given me the push. Oh well, when your running bad, your running bad. Luke does it today.

Rajon Rondo To Score Over 13.5 Points In Game 4 vs. New York Knicks ($100 to win $80)

Would not let me bet over $100 on this bet. That says something right there. Best Bet

Stats:
50/50Bets:
Record 38-31
Best Bets 9-6
Win Percentage: 55.07%

Kitty Total = $593.93

Sportsbook
Profit/Loss = – ($547.50)

Long Odds Bets:
Record 0-7
Money Invested = $275.00

Poker & Casino
Profit/Loss + $28.00


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Homeward Bound

Posted on April 23, 2011

airplane - homeward boundHeading north this A.M. Went 1-1 yesterday. Three bets today. Plane to catch.

Luke Donald to win vs. Jim Furyk ($140 to win$100)

Montreal Canadians vs. Boston Bruins Over 5 Goals ($110 to win $100)

Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angelas Angels ($100 to win$100)

Back to normal Easter Morning.

Stats:
50/50Bets:
Record 38-28
Best Bets 9-6
Win Percentage: 56.81%

Kitty Total = $988.93

Sportsbook
Profit/Loss = – ($182.60)

Long Odds Bets:
Record 0-7
Money Invested = $275.00

Poker & Casino
Profit/Loss + $28.00


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Somthing Good Can Come Out Of Canada!

Posted on April 22, 2011

So the Habs could not give me a four bet win streak as they blew it on home ice in OT. The Dallas Mavericks lost as perdicted but did cover by the magic half point for a win. The result is no change in the Kitty. Two bets today and off to the water park, kids will have fun, adults will use Purell.

Luke Donald to win vs/ Grame McDowell ($155 to win $100) 2nd Round Only

My boy Luke rips it up with great iron play at the birdie haven Heritage to beat an uneven McDowell.

New York Knicks to win vs Boston Celtics ($160 to win $100)

Laying odds on both these bets but they are both winners especially this one. Best Bet

Stats:
50/50Bets:
Record 37-27
Best Bets 9-5
Win Percentage: 57.81%

Kitty Total = $1018.93

Sportsbook
Profit/Loss = – ($122.60)

Long Odds Bets:
Record 0-7
Money Invested = $275.00

Poker & Casino
Profit/Loss + $28.00


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Coffee’s For Closers Only

Posted on April 21, 2011

So I thought the Bruins game was yesterday but it is tonight. That means that my 2-0 finish yesterday is not complete until the B’s blow this game. I have added another bet that I like as well. Vacation rounding to a close and we fly back Saturday. Aloe is my friend.

Montreal Canadians to Win vs. Boston Bruins ($100 to win $100)

Bruins can’t even it up and go dowm 3-1, Habs get the calls and the goals needed.

Dallas Mavericks +5.5 vs. Portland Trailblazers ($110 to win $100)

Dirk, Terry, Marion, Kidd, and crew will most likely lose in Portland which is a tough place to play but keep it close and the blazers get one back in the series to make it 2-1

Thanks again for checking in…

Sincerely,

The Machine

Stats:
50/50Bets:
Record 36-26
Best Bets 9-5
Win Percentage: 58.06%

Kitty Total = $1018.93

Sportsbook
Profit/Loss = – ($122.60)

Long Odds Bets:
Record 0-7
Money Invested = $275.00

Poker & Casino
Profit/Loss + $28.00


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