October Preview?

Posted on June 6, 2011

October PreviewRed Sox, Phillies, Beckett, Lee, Game 1. Sounds like a World Series doesn’t it? Or the late June classic that is; inter-league play. I have no issue with these match-ups at all. They are a fun interesting way to break up the summer months, shake it up a little, and generate some extra revenue of course. But for those saying that this match up between Boston and Philadelphia will be repeated in four months to decide who is the 2011 king of the diamond are sorely mistaken. As it stands now the Phillies have the best record in the National League at 49 wins and 30 loses, including a 30-13 record when playing in front of their ridiculous neon liberty bell. They have a solid offense and play good defense as well, but the real reason they are tops right now is the pitching staff. No matter what team you are a fan of, can you imagine having your starting staff be these guys?:

Roy Halladay = 10-3 era 2.40
Cliff Lee = 8-5 era 2.87
Cole Hamels = 9-4 era 2.49

It just took me about ten minutes to decide what order to place these guys! Now imagine your team facing them in a seven game series! Oh, and by the way, on the DL right now is Roy Oswalt and Joe Blanton, not a bad four and five to have I would say. Throw in Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, and Raul Ibanez behind you and I would say that these guys can start thinking about a long season and a walk into the final series if all stay healthy.

The other side of this much talked about “given” World Series match-up is the Boston Red Sox. This is where I say hold your horses. We all know the story of the Red Sox epic horrible start. If you have been paying attention they have followed it up with an epic comeback in a short period of time. Most predicted that it would take a good chunk of the season for the Sox to even sniff first place in the division, let along all of the American League. But here we stand on June 28th, the Red Sox only a half game back of the New York shitheads, and only after choking up some horrible games to doormat National League teams like the Padres and the Pirates. But in these recent games we see the problem with even thinking for one second that Boston will be in the World Series. I know it sounds simple and somewhat obvious, but they have no pitching, and pitching wins World Series. The Red Sox have one of the best and hottest hitting line-ups in the game and may score more runs then any team in history, but in a seven game series against the best the game can offer in Halladay, Lee, Hamels and Oswalt, the Red Sox are dead meat. Step back and face it all you die hard Sox fans, its over. Taint gonna happen. Here is a look at the Red Sox Pitching staff:

Josh Beckett = 6-2 era 1.86
Jon Lester = 9-4 ers 3.66
John Lackey = 5-6 era 7.36

The four and fives here are Buchholz and Wakefield. Beckett has the league lead in ERA somehow but you would not know by watching him pitch. The domination and intimidation factor is gone with Josh. This starts with the velocity, which is down. Once teams get a 2nd look at him this year and in the playoffs, get use to his new cutter that he is relying on entirely too much, then his ERA will balloon to well above three. Then he will have to resort to his next best pitch: the beanball. As for the rest of the staff there is no comparison to the boys of Philly at all. You can say that Buchholz will be great someday, but that day seems to never come. Lackey is a basket case and is not long for Boston or maybe even the game, and good old Wake will have the biggest one Boston has ever seen in a few years from now. Lines out the door and around the block. Although the reports of his demise have been greatly exaggerated before.

In the end this article is pretty boring. It’s all about the pitching….yadda, yadda, yadda… we have heard it before. I know, your right, but a truism is a truism for a reason, and when it come to betting on an outcome, truism’s are the goal.

News & Notes:

- Site work continues, making progress.

- Game of Thrones finale was balls, get it on DVD, Netflix, stolen on the internet, whatever, good stuff. Again, another world, and fantasy fiction, but still great.

- Played in my club’s big team event recently and we won again for the 2nd year in a row. This was part of the reason for lack of entries these days. Also, it being summer and travel coming, it will continue to be light, but keep checking in.

- Not sure if I mentioned this already, but alas I have relented and will be opening Facebook and Twitter accounts shortly in conjunction with the new site release so stay tuned for that as well.

- Also played live Texas Hold’em with some friends and won three of three games and that was after winning 7 of 9 skins from the same guys earlier in they day. Nice run, not sure I am getting the call for the next one.

Here’s the bet I like for today:

Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 runs vs. Boston Red Sox ($100 to win $175)

No Ortiz or Crawford, in this one. I think Lee stymies the Sox hitters a bit, and the Phillies have done their homework on Beckett who has not pitched since June 15 when he came down with a bad flu. We may see a limited pitch count and reduced innings from Josh as well. The fans will be pumped for this with Terry and J.D. to boo at, so the energy will be good. Not a bad take on a Tuesday night in the summer.

Stats:

50/50Bets:Record Overall = 61-59-2
Win Percentage = 50.83%

Best Bets = 15-7
Best Best Win Percentage = 68.18%

Kitty Total = $535.00

Sportsbook
Profit/Loss = – ($606.43)

Long Odds Bets:
Record = 1-24
Money Invested = $510.00
Winnings = $300.00

Categories: sports-commentary


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