Play Time

Posted on January 20, 2012

Belichick Genius

Week twelve is when I knew the Patriots would win the SuperBowl. I had just watched the Belichick boys give up 400 yards passing to Vince Young of the Eagles, yet the game was never even close. That is when I came to the understanding that this season was going to be Bill Belichick’s masterpiece.  When you take a cursory look at the Patriots as a team, the average fan or even experienced analyst has been saying the same thing all year.  The defense is horrible.  They can’t win consistently with the players they have on that side of the ball.  Sure they can score points, but come playoff time, defense will rule.  This is where the genius of Bill comes into play.  Guess what?  Bill could give a rats ass about the defense.  Don’t take that the wrong way, of course he would love to have his defense post shutouts every game, but he knows with the players he currently has on this roster, that this is not going to happen.  What brainiac Bill concerns himself with is one thing, and that is to possess the ball.  Do not get this confused with the always hyped “time of possession” stat.  We are talking about the number of plays (snaps) his offense gets to take.  The New England Patriots this year were the second highest (Saints first) in total offensive snaps per game.  Bill knows that this may be the most unstoppable offense he has ever coached.

Have they scored more points than any other?  No (see his 2007 team for that distinction). What unstoppable means is that if the team executes the plan correctly and adjusts, in game as needed, the opposing coach has no way to stop them.  You want to double team Gronkowski?  Welker has 16 catches 217 yards and 2 touchdowns.  Want to stop Welker?  Gronkowski goes for 6 catches 160 yards and 2 touchdowns.  How about trying to jam up both of those guys on the line?  Dion Branch gets targeted for 8 catches 129 yards and one score.  Throw in the other monster at tight end, Hernandez and he will get 9 catches for 129 yards and 1 touchdown.  These are all real stats from this season.   The more times you can get the ball in Brady’s hands the more they win.  Their three losses this year were the three lowest number of offensive plays.  So, how do get more plays?  How do you get the most snaps for this juggernunt that can’t be stopped? Invite the other team to pass on you all day.  The more the other team runs the ball the more the clock runs down.  Less time on the clock means fewer plays for your offense.  The more they pass, the more the clock stops.  It is that simple.

When you give up over 300 yards passing to more teams than any other in the league, but still finish with a record of 13-3, clearly you have a plan, and it is working.  This is genius.  Go ahead and pass.  Go ahead and score quickly.  Go ahead and give the Patriots the ball back.  You better get seven points nearly every possession against the Patriots defense, because if you do not, their offense will.  Paramount for the defense is to stop the run and dare the other team to throw.  Once Belichick saw what he had for defensive talent, this became his plan for this year.  No one can stop my offense, my defense is not good, so lets make sure we get as many opportunities for the offense as we can.  Let ‘em pass.  Did he figure this out on his own?  Does he have a saber-metrics geek employed on the staff who came up with this?  Not sure, but it works.  It will continue to work.  And maybe after the season someone in the media will realize this, but you heard it hear first.  The old adage of “defense wins championships” may seem dead with this method of madness, but it still can ring true.   Just not against the best offense ever assembled.  Bring the plays, bring the ring.

Bets of the Weekend.

Patriots -7 vs. Ravens  Bet $345 to win $300

As stated above, I think they focus on stopping Ray Rice from running the ball at all cost.  Let Flaco throw and even if mildly successful at it, it will not matter.  Now, the one caveat to this game is if the Baltimore defense can get the pressure up the middle, get Brady on the move, and disrupt the passing game.  But if I know this could be a factor then Bill does also.  Why do you think we saw the wrinkle of Hernandez getting handed the ball out of the shotgun against Denver?  It was not just to beat the Broncos (that was a foregone conclusion), it was to show this to the Ravens.  You want to bring pressure, OK, just be ready for a 6 foot 4 inch super fast and strong tight end to run it right by your 40 year old barking dog, overhyped ass. Again, the genius at work. Best Bet.

Giants +2.5 vs. 49er’s  Bet $210 to win $200

The rematch game will happen, and result in the highest rated SuperBowl in history.  (Maybe should have gone money line for the outright win?).  I think the Giants are once again peaking at the right time, there is no doubt about it.  But what really has me convinced is that Coughlin will pull back on the awesome pass rushers he has and like Bill focus on stopping the strength, which is Frank Gore.  Can Alex Smith torch the Giants in the air?  Nope.  Unless San Fran wins the turnover and special teams battle, and freaks out the always girly Eli,  I can not see the Niners winning this game.

News & Notes

- As you can tell I re-upped again for these final three games ($1000).

- I am running out of death scenes in Goodfellas.

Stats:

50/50Bets:Record Overall =  119-138-5
Win/Push Percentage = 47.32%

NFL Record Overall  (2011 Season) = 37-55-2

Monday Night Bets Record = 7-11

Best Bets = 16-14
Best Best Win Percentage = 53.33%

Kitty Total = $1000.01

Sportsbook
Profit/Loss =  -($3,141.43)

Long Odds Bets

Record = 2-26

Money Invested = $710.00

Winnings = $1,300.00


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For Good Measure..

Posted on January 17, 2012


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Blood on the Floor

Posted on January 13, 2012

Tommy's Mother's PaintingI am not sure that my readers have really grasped the magnitude of the futility show in these pages when it comes to sports betting.  I have been doing this (offline and on) for the past 16 years.  Over the course of that time I have had good and bad years for sure.  I never have won five figures nor lost anywhere close to that.  Can I say I am about even, as most bettors will incorrectly state?  Yea, I would say that is about right.  Then, I decide to write about my betting endeavors and post it here for all to see.  If you proclaimed that you were going to place two hundred and sixty bets in less than one year, and your intention was to lose each bet,  I submit you could not produce a record as bad as I have.  The one year I decide to be a big shot and show how easy and fun sports betting can be, I get beaten like Billy Batts.

By the way I would like to thank the Alabama readers who sent along their well wishes, gift baskets etc. after my nod to LSU this past Monday.  Roll Tide.  Yet another Loss for the loser.  Believe it or not I actually have some friends that say I should stop the betting altogether and just write about other stuff.  This seems silly to me because if I were them I would ride this loser train to money town.  I did a little calculation.  If you have bet the opposite bet that I have made this year in all 260 bets, you would have banked about $4,200 bucks.  Not bad.

So here is the situation.  I have a balance of $14.15 left to work with (pathetic, I know).  As I have stated previously I would really like to try and work this into a reasonable betting amount by the time the SuperBowl comes around, without having to re-up again and add more funds to this unmitigated disaster.  I have a minimum bet of $5.00 per bet, so I can not bet on all four playoff games this weekend.  I have decided to split the money I have and bet the two games I like the most.  If I lose these both I will have the un-bettable amount of $0.01 left and will be forced to re-up for the remainder of the playoffs.  Is there anything more humiliating than betting $14.14 on two NFL games to win $13.46…Nope.  So here is to hoping that the beating I have taken is done, and I will not wake up in gurgling in the trunk of a Cadillac only to be stabbed in the gut over and over and over with a kitchen knife borrowed from mom.

Bets of the Weekend

Saints -4 vs. 49er’s  Bet $7.07 to win $6.73

San Fran will try to run it all day in order to keep Brees off the field.  The San Fran defense is stout as well, maybe even the best of the year.  San Fran is at home and this crowd misses the old playoff glory days, so this place will be rocking.  New Orleans is not on turf.  They are outdoors.  Some would would say they are even a little soft.  Their defense is not good at all.  So what gives?  Why the Saints?  Do you remember when they won the SuperBowl?  Do you remember the game plan domination and execution of Sean Payton and Brees together?  They have had two weeks to get ready.  This might be a complete blowout.

Packers -7.5 vs. Giants  Bet $7.07 to win $6.73

When will someone learn that if you take out Victor Cruz and stop any big run plays, you can beat the Giants with ease?  I think Mike McCarthy will figure out this riddle.  The one concern would be the Giants very affective four man pass rush, but look for the quick slants and crossing routs, that Green Bay does so well, to come into play to take the rush of the Giants out.  Also, I have not seen Eli throw too many picks lately, but the defense of Green bay gives up a ton of passing yards because they are ball hawking for picks.  I think we see multiple from the baby face boy this weekend.

News and Notes

- I may tweet and Facebook picks on the other two games if I win the first one and get some much needed funds.

- Its funny to me how specialized television is getting.  Just caught an episode of “Shipping Wars” on A&E, and having come from that field I found it very interesting to stick my head back in that world for a half hour and plan to do it again.

- I am Greenberg.

Stats:

50/50Bets:Record Overall =  119-136-5
Win/Push Percentage = 47.69%

NFL Record Overall  (2011 Season) = 37-53-2

Monday Night Bets Record = 7-11

Best Bets = 16-14
Best Best Win Percentage = 53.33%

Kitty Total = $14.15

Sportsbook
Profit/Loss =  -($3,127.28)

Long Odds Bets

Record = 2-26

Money Invested = $710.00

Winnings = $1,300.00


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Purple or Fold

Posted on January 09, 2012
LSU Tigers

National Champs?

In a time when football and religion seemed intertwined more than ever before, you have to ask yourself: “What would Ross do?”.  The reason for asking that questions is very apparent if you have been one of the many faithful readers.  You must know by now, right?  What you do is – the opposite.  I have just come off another losing weekend of NFL football picks, which I am sure is part of some record breaking string that I am too depressed to even bother researching.  I won only the Giants game and lost the other three, badly.  I have topped the three G’s mark in the lost column for the first time in my life and I have the paltry sum of $124.15 left in my account.  The goal at the beginning of this football season was to have fun betting games, make some cash, and cap it with a big Super Bowl bet.  The running stats that I have faithfully kept, and report below, speaks volumes.  The new goal is simple: Have at least $1.00 to bet on the Super Bowl. In order for this new lofty precipice to be met, I have to win tonights college football National Championship game between the LSU Tigers and the Alabama Crimson Tide.  This is going to be quite the rematch.  A redemption game for the Tide or a confirmation game for LSU?  Lets take a look at what this swami had to say the first time this match up took place this season just ten weeks ago:

Alabama -4.5 Vs. LSU  Bet $105 to Win $100

Guess what?  This Saturday night is the college football national championship game!  Yup, the powers that be decided the hell with the rest of the season, lets just have the two best fight it out right now.  This is a rare thing to have the number 1 and number 2 teams meet in the regular season.  This is no doubt a game not to miss.  And I am talking as a guy who has not watched one NCAA football game this year.  If you are a football fan or not, this will be something to watch.  I am putting the over/under on actual heart attacks in the stadium at 3.  Two of them will be from massive (in size) LSU fans who made the trip from the Bayou to Tuscaloosa and stopped at every Home Town Buffet along the way.  I like Bama on my gut alone.  I studied this thing up and down.  They are very even.  Even records, even offense, even defense, even dominating performances against like opponents (they both beat up Florida and Tennessee).  So the scales get tipped on two things.  Home field advantage and coaching.  The refs want to go home alive, and Saban is better than Miles.

Of course this was another Loss for Ross as the Tide missed 4 field goals in the game and fell 9-6 in overtime.  So at this point I think it is only fair if I pick the other side this time, and not offend any Bama faithful as I am sure the Ross Jinx will continue.

Bet of the Night

LSU +2.5 vs. Alabama  Bet $110 to win $100

Honestly, I have done my due diligence with this pick.  LSU is healthier then when they met last time.  They are playing in the Superdome in New Orleans where half of this team played its High School championship games.  I suspect LSU is going to pass the ball more this game and try to exploit the way Bama likes to crowd the box on defense.  I also think that Tyrann Mathieu may prove once again that his the best football player on either side of the ball by creating a turnover or getting a pick that proves crucial.

Stats:

50/50Bets:Record Overall =  119-135-5
Win/Push Percentage = 47.87%

NFL Record Overall  (2011 Season) = 37-53-2

Monday Night Bets Record = 7-11

Best Bets = 16-14
Best Best Win Percentage = 53.33%

Kitty Total = $124.15

Sportsbook
Profit/Loss =  -($3,017.28)

Long Odds Bets

Record = 2-26

Money Invested = $710.00

Winnings = $1,300.00



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Mild Card Weekend

Posted on January 06, 2012

Wild Card Weekend 2012I know that the Seattle Seahawks are not in the playoffs this weekend, as they were last year, but this is still one of the weakest groups of round one playoff entrants I have seen in a long time.  Speaking of weak, this is my first article since December the twenty first (below), and despite my performance this NFL season I do have a history of the playoffs being good to me.  I like to think it has something to do with watching and betting these teams all year long, but after this season I cannot in good conscience say my readers should follow the upcoming advice for any attempt at monetary gain.  I finished the seventeen week NFL regular season with a record of 36-50-2 versus the spread.  This will clearly not lead me to a career path in the bookmaking field.  I re-upped the Kitty twice during this season ( never a good sign either) and stand down a total of $2,909.78 since I started Ross Vs The Loss.  The Loss is winning, Charlie Sheen style. But with the playoffs come new hope.  I have decided not to re-up once again for this last run, but instead I will take my current stash of $231.65 and see what I can do with it.  Outside of the Saints, not one of these teams playing this Saturday and Sunday has a shot of watching the confetti fall in Indianapolis.  But the drama will be there despite the two rookie quarterbacks, gimpy overweight womanizer, and fallen christ child.  I wouldn’t miss it for the world because the end is near and mid February (the darkest days for all sports viewers and bettors) looms.

Playoffs Bets of the Weekend

Bengals +4 vs. Texans  Bet $52.50 to win $50

In week 14 these two teams met playing for their playoff lives.  The Bengals were at home, had a 16-3 halftime lead, and blew chunks in the second half losing 20-19.  Despite being on the road this time, and of course despite having Marvin Lewis as a coach, I think they can pull this out.  I see it being close again and I like taking points not giving when it appears to be an even match.  I also like taking the team that lost in a rematch game such as this.  I also think that Dalton’s season long worth of experience has prepared him better than T.J. Yates who has only been the starter a few weeks.  Running game edge goes to Texans while passing goes to the Bengals.  Defense is even, but home field will help the Texans as well.  I am also not convinced that Andre Johnson is fully recovered and ready for a playoff caliber game.

Lions +10.5 vs. Saints  Bet $52.50 to win $50

Another match up of opponents that have seen each other recently.  It was week 13 and the the Lions lost 31-17 in the Super-dome to Brees and company.  But a closer look shows that the Lions actually had more yards on offense than the Saints and trailed by a single touchdown heading into the 4th quarter.  Don’t get me wrong I think Brees in the smartest QB in all of football (save Peyton), but he does not play defense.  The Saints D can give up some points for sure.  The Lions will have a somewhat familiar feel making this trip for a second time this year and it is on turf which they play on as well.  The number is just too large when you have two teams that can sling it like this.  If Detroit can avoid the ridiculous penalties like they had in the earlier meeting, they will hang tight in this one.

Giants -3 vs. Falcons  Bet $52.50 to win $50

I pretty much had to put the gun to my head in order to make a pick in this one.  The Giants are so inconsistent.  Eli still looks like a frightened little girl out there sometimes.  The fourth quarter comebacks I have seen have often included blind launches downfield that somehow have found Victor Cruz’s hands.  That being said I still think the Giants have a pass rush that could give Matt Ryan fits.  In addition I just do not see the quality wins for the Falcons this year.  The best one to speak of was a squeaker against Detroit in week 7.  The running game of the Giants appears to be getting back to form as well.  Lastly, looking at the coaching match-up the edge clearly goes to Coughlin.

Steelers -8.5 vs. Broncos  Bet $52.50 to win $50

I love the NFL but how is a 12-4 team on the road against an 8-8 team?  This seems like a lot of points for a road team to give to any other NFL team, but this is the Bronco’s.  Tim Tebow has no chance of winning this game, the questions is can he keep it close?  Big Ben is hurt and not his “extend the play” normal self.  Which if you watch Pittsburgh enough you realize how much a part of the offense this is.  Can Denver play solid D and slow Pittsburgh and win a 10-9 game?  I don’t think so.

News & Notes

-No update on the Wellesley story.  Media ignorance is bliss.

- Since December 21 I am 8-7-1 overall, 5-4 NFL, 3-2-1 in College Bowl games.

- No update on my former high school hoop teammate (Charles Crawford) suing the Red Sox.  I think the settlement talks have begun, but I do not expect a big number.

Stats:

50/50Bets:Record Overall =  118-132-5
Win/Push Percentage = 48.23%

NFL Record Overall  (2011 Season) = 36-50-2

Monday Night Bets Record = 7-11

Best Bets = 16-14
Best Best Win Percentage = 53.33%

Kitty Total = $231.65.

Sportsbook
Profit/Loss =  -($2,909.78)

Long Odds Bets

Record = 2-26

Money Invested = $710.00

Winnings = $1,300.00


2 Responses

  1. Its A burgh thang:

    Hey ross- I totally agree with your comments about the steelers. I mean they are better than the wild card to begin with but tebow!!!? He thinks he’s gods gift to the earth- i hope they crush him! He’s tim tebow, not tim riggins!!!! GO BURGH!!!!

    06.01.2012 20:39 Reply

    • Ross:

      While I do think the Broncs and their Holy man have no shot to win I also stated earlier in the piece that Pittsburgh will not be in the big dance either. New England owns that spot for sure.

      06.01.2012 20:49 Reply

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