Who to Pick for Super Bowl XLVI

Posted on February 2, 2012

Who Win's?It is quite clear the Giants will win Super Bowl XLVI.  The defensive line will once again dominate the Patriots aging offensive line as they did in 2007.  Eli Manning is now the total package quarterback, and has proved that to be true this year especially during crunch time and in the big games.  Sure the team underachieved with a 9-7 regular season record, but then they went on to defeat the Falcons without giving up any points on defense.  That was followed up with a beating of the team with the best offense and overall record in the NFL this season, in the Green Bay Packers.  On the road as well!  Then, they followed it up by hitting the road once again and pulled it out against the best defensive team in the NFL in the San Francisco 49ers.  This team is complete.  They have a trio of wide receivers (Nicks, Manningham, and Cruz) that have sure hands, run precise and smart routes, and have a knack for making big plays when needed most.  The trio theme continues with the running back core.  Brandon “The Bruiser” Jacobs, Ahmad “the Pounder” Bradshaw, and D.J. “The Gasher” Ware, will soften the Patriots defense early and often, making Eli’s eyes light up with visions of down field bombs that will be successful against the Patriots hodge-podge secondary.

Aside from the obvious position advantages the Giants maintain, they will win this game with the aid of the Patriots many deficiencies.  One of the worst defenses in the NFL this season, against a very questionable schedule.  The Patriots will not be able to control this game.  This team did not win a single game in the regular season against a team that finished with a winning record.  Then they make the playoffs to discover the gift of the Denver Broncos under the tree.  They proceed to barely make the Big Game by stalling against the Ravens needing the worst choke in kicker history to secure the win.  When you really dig deep into this team you see weakness bleeding from every pore. Take away the middle of the field and you can take away the supersonic tight end duo of Cheech and Chong (take your pick as to which is which).  The run game is not a real threat despite a few solid jaunts last game for the Law Firm (Ben Jarvis Green Ellis).  And when it comes to wide receivers it really gets ugly.  Deion Branch is far removed from his Super Bowl XXXIX MVP days, He now looks like he is using a walker with rollers on the front as he lumbers down field on out patterns. Mr. Reliable, Wes Welker,  is good for a few third down conversions but has a slim to none chance of seeing the end-zone against these Giants.  Maybe Chad Uno Cinco (15 catches all year) will be Bill Belichick’s secret weapon.  Maybe he has been hiding him all year just for this game, the ultimate genius move, lay low for 18 straight games, and break the seal in Indianapolis on the final Sunday.  Who would expect that?

If you had any inclination to pick the Patriots you may point to coaching as one advantage New England may have. However, Tom Coughlin seems to have Bill’s number.  He won against him in 2007 and this year in the regular season.  He is smart, and while not liked by most players he is respected.  He also happens to hold the distinction as the best man to have with the red flag in his pocket.  He has the best percentage for correct coaches challenges in the NFL.  When he tosses it, he wins it most of the time, and that is good coaching. Just as valuable as getting a poor journeyman wide receiver to play as a poor defensive back, is it not?  In the end coaching can only take a team so far in this game.  The players still have to perform and (as the Patriots love to say)…execute.  It is clear that the team that has the skill, the will, and the position by position advantage in this game is the New York Football Giants.

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Super Bowl XLVI Pick

Patriots -3 vs Giants  Bet $855.01 to win $855.01

On November 28th, 2011 I predicted the New England Patriots would hoist the Lombardi Trophy in Lucas Oil Stadium.  I said it and believed it then, and I certainly do now.  The Patriots have played a team (outside their division) twice in one season thirteen times during the Brady /Belichick era.  The have lost both games only twice.  I would like to extend a big thank you to all the Joe Bag O’ Donuts tri-state area fans for laying their hard earn money on the Giants.  This has allowed me to take the Patriots, giving only three points, and I am getting an even money payout!  I am once again amazed at the undeserved ego and bravado shown by the New York betting public, but again, thank you.  I know it took many septic tanks that you’s guys had to pump come up with the cash to move this line to the riduculous gimmie status that it currently stands at.  I guess it’s the result of thoughtless TV talking heads and lazy print media guys, who whip off trash and dash articles like the one above.  I may seem like the ultimate homer with this pick, but I can assure you this is not the case.  I want to win this bet.  I have it all on the line (again).  If you have been paying attention to me this year you know I have had the worst betting season in recorded history.  So, I understand the skepticism.  But this bet picked itself.  The game plan will dominate, and in true New England fashion, it may not be pretty, but they will win.  They will take all of those reasons given above and make them their weapons. They will cover the spread.  I will collect at the window for Super Bowl XLVI.

News & Notes

- Watched the premire episode of “Luck” on HBO the other night.  Aside from Dustin Hoffman looking old, out of place, and trying too hard, it seems like a solid cast and story line.  Who can resist an inside look at the world of horse racing?  Not the glowing underdog horse story with a whisperer for an owner, but from the angles of the crooked trainers, the drunken jockeys, and best of all the degenerate (betting daily) losers.  Seedy, scummy, fun.

- Madonna?  I hope she packed on some muscle mass to those granny arms she has been sporting lately.  I am really not in the mood for shots of a 52 year old with chest bone cleavage while I eat my wings.

-Sorry for the lack of content lately, changes to come and more.  Thanks for checking in, spread the word and enjoy the game.

Stats:

50/50Bets:Record Overall =  120-139-5
Win/Push Percentage = 47.34%

NFL Record Overall  (2011 Season) = 38-56-2

Monday Night Bets Record = 7-11

Best Bets = 16-15
Best Best Win Percentage = 51.61%

Kitty Total = $855.01

Sportsbook
Profit/Loss =  -($3,286.42)

Long Odds Bets

Record = 2-26

Money Invested = $710.00

Winnings = $1,300.00

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Categories: sports-commentary


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