Who to Pick for Super Bowl XLVI

Posted on February 02, 2012

Who Win's?It is quite clear the Giants will win Super Bowl XLVI.  The defensive line will once again dominate the Patriots aging offensive line as they did in 2007.  Eli Manning is now the total package quarterback, and has proved that to be true this year especially during crunch time and in the big games.  Sure the team underachieved with a 9-7 regular season record, but then they went on to defeat the Falcons without giving up any points on defense.  That was followed up with a beating of the team with the best offense and overall record in the NFL this season, in the Green Bay Packers.  On the road as well!  Then, they followed it up by hitting the road once again and pulled it out against the best defensive team in the NFL in the San Francisco 49ers.  This team is complete.  They have a trio of wide receivers (Nicks, Manningham, and Cruz) that have sure hands, run precise and smart routes, and have a knack for making big plays when needed most.  The trio theme continues with the running back core.  Brandon “The Bruiser” Jacobs, Ahmad “the Pounder” Bradshaw, and D.J. “The Gasher” Ware, will soften the Patriots defense early and often, making Eli’s eyes light up with visions of down field bombs that will be successful against the Patriots hodge-podge secondary.

Aside from the obvious position advantages the Giants maintain, they will win this game with the aid of the Patriots many deficiencies.  One of the worst defenses in the NFL this season, against a very questionable schedule.  The Patriots will not be able to control this game.  This team did not win a single game in the regular season against a team that finished with a winning record.  Then they make the playoffs to discover the gift of the Denver Broncos under the tree.  They proceed to barely make the Big Game by stalling against the Ravens needing the worst choke in kicker history to secure the win.  When you really dig deep into this team you see weakness bleeding from every pore. Take away the middle of the field and you can take away the supersonic tight end duo of Cheech and Chong (take your pick as to which is which).  The run game is not a real threat despite a few solid jaunts last game for the Law Firm (Ben Jarvis Green Ellis).  And when it comes to wide receivers it really gets ugly.  Deion Branch is far removed from his Super Bowl XXXIX MVP days, He now looks like he is using a walker with rollers on the front as he lumbers down field on out patterns. Mr. Reliable, Wes Welker,  is good for a few third down conversions but has a slim to none chance of seeing the end-zone against these Giants.  Maybe Chad Uno Cinco (15 catches all year) will be Bill Belichick’s secret weapon.  Maybe he has been hiding him all year just for this game, the ultimate genius move, lay low for 18 straight games, and break the seal in Indianapolis on the final Sunday.  Who would expect that?

If you had any inclination to pick the Patriots you may point to coaching as one advantage New England may have. However, Tom Coughlin seems to have Bill’s number.  He won against him in 2007 and this year in the regular season.  He is smart, and while not liked by most players he is respected.  He also happens to hold the distinction as the best man to have with the red flag in his pocket.  He has the best percentage for correct coaches challenges in the NFL.  When he tosses it, he wins it most of the time, and that is good coaching. Just as valuable as getting a poor journeyman wide receiver to play as a poor defensive back, is it not?  In the end coaching can only take a team so far in this game.  The players still have to perform and (as the Patriots love to say)…execute.  It is clear that the team that has the skill, the will, and the position by position advantage in this game is the New York Football Giants.

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Super Bowl XLVI Pick

Patriots -3 vs Giants  Bet $855.01 to win $855.01

On November 28th, 2011 I predicted the New England Patriots would hoist the Lombardi Trophy in Lucas Oil Stadium.  I said it and believed it then, and I certainly do now.  The Patriots have played a team (outside their division) twice in one season thirteen times during the Brady /Belichick era.  The have lost both games only twice.  I would like to extend a big thank you to all the Joe Bag O’ Donuts tri-state area fans for laying their hard earn money on the Giants.  This has allowed me to take the Patriots, giving only three points, and I am getting an even money payout!  I am once again amazed at the undeserved ego and bravado shown by the New York betting public, but again, thank you.  I know it took many septic tanks that you’s guys had to pump come up with the cash to move this line to the riduculous gimmie status that it currently stands at.  I guess it’s the result of thoughtless TV talking heads and lazy print media guys, who whip off trash and dash articles like the one above.  I may seem like the ultimate homer with this pick, but I can assure you this is not the case.  I want to win this bet.  I have it all on the line (again).  If you have been paying attention to me this year you know I have had the worst betting season in recorded history.  So, I understand the skepticism.  But this bet picked itself.  The game plan will dominate, and in true New England fashion, it may not be pretty, but they will win.  They will take all of those reasons given above and make them their weapons. They will cover the spread.  I will collect at the window for Super Bowl XLVI.

News & Notes

- Watched the premire episode of “Luck” on HBO the other night.  Aside from Dustin Hoffman looking old, out of place, and trying too hard, it seems like a solid cast and story line.  Who can resist an inside look at the world of horse racing?  Not the glowing underdog horse story with a whisperer for an owner, but from the angles of the crooked trainers, the drunken jockeys, and best of all the degenerate (betting daily) losers.  Seedy, scummy, fun.

- Madonna?  I hope she packed on some muscle mass to those granny arms she has been sporting lately.  I am really not in the mood for shots of a 52 year old with chest bone cleavage while I eat my wings.

-Sorry for the lack of content lately, changes to come and more.  Thanks for checking in, spread the word and enjoy the game.

Stats:

50/50Bets:Record Overall =  120-139-5
Win/Push Percentage = 47.34%

NFL Record Overall  (2011 Season) = 38-56-2

Monday Night Bets Record = 7-11

Best Bets = 16-15
Best Best Win Percentage = 51.61%

Kitty Total = $855.01

Sportsbook
Profit/Loss =  -($3,286.42)

Long Odds Bets

Record = 2-26

Money Invested = $710.00

Winnings = $1,300.00


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Play Time

Posted on January 20, 2012

Belichick Genius

Week twelve is when I knew the Patriots would win the SuperBowl. I had just watched the Belichick boys give up 400 yards passing to Vince Young of the Eagles, yet the game was never even close. That is when I came to the understanding that this season was going to be Bill Belichick’s masterpiece.  When you take a cursory look at the Patriots as a team, the average fan or even experienced analyst has been saying the same thing all year.  The defense is horrible.  They can’t win consistently with the players they have on that side of the ball.  Sure they can score points, but come playoff time, defense will rule.  This is where the genius of Bill comes into play.  Guess what?  Bill could give a rats ass about the defense.  Don’t take that the wrong way, of course he would love to have his defense post shutouts every game, but he knows with the players he currently has on this roster, that this is not going to happen.  What brainiac Bill concerns himself with is one thing, and that is to possess the ball.  Do not get this confused with the always hyped “time of possession” stat.  We are talking about the number of plays (snaps) his offense gets to take.  The New England Patriots this year were the second highest (Saints first) in total offensive snaps per game.  Bill knows that this may be the most unstoppable offense he has ever coached.

Have they scored more points than any other?  No (see his 2007 team for that distinction). What unstoppable means is that if the team executes the plan correctly and adjusts, in game as needed, the opposing coach has no way to stop them.  You want to double team Gronkowski?  Welker has 16 catches 217 yards and 2 touchdowns.  Want to stop Welker?  Gronkowski goes for 6 catches 160 yards and 2 touchdowns.  How about trying to jam up both of those guys on the line?  Dion Branch gets targeted for 8 catches 129 yards and one score.  Throw in the other monster at tight end, Hernandez and he will get 9 catches for 129 yards and 1 touchdown.  These are all real stats from this season.   The more times you can get the ball in Brady’s hands the more they win.  Their three losses this year were the three lowest number of offensive plays.  So, how do get more plays?  How do you get the most snaps for this juggernunt that can’t be stopped? Invite the other team to pass on you all day.  The more the other team runs the ball the more the clock runs down.  Less time on the clock means fewer plays for your offense.  The more they pass, the more the clock stops.  It is that simple.

When you give up over 300 yards passing to more teams than any other in the league, but still finish with a record of 13-3, clearly you have a plan, and it is working.  This is genius.  Go ahead and pass.  Go ahead and score quickly.  Go ahead and give the Patriots the ball back.  You better get seven points nearly every possession against the Patriots defense, because if you do not, their offense will.  Paramount for the defense is to stop the run and dare the other team to throw.  Once Belichick saw what he had for defensive talent, this became his plan for this year.  No one can stop my offense, my defense is not good, so lets make sure we get as many opportunities for the offense as we can.  Let ‘em pass.  Did he figure this out on his own?  Does he have a saber-metrics geek employed on the staff who came up with this?  Not sure, but it works.  It will continue to work.  And maybe after the season someone in the media will realize this, but you heard it hear first.  The old adage of “defense wins championships” may seem dead with this method of madness, but it still can ring true.   Just not against the best offense ever assembled.  Bring the plays, bring the ring.

Bets of the Weekend.

Patriots -7 vs. Ravens  Bet $345 to win $300

As stated above, I think they focus on stopping Ray Rice from running the ball at all cost.  Let Flaco throw and even if mildly successful at it, it will not matter.  Now, the one caveat to this game is if the Baltimore defense can get the pressure up the middle, get Brady on the move, and disrupt the passing game.  But if I know this could be a factor then Bill does also.  Why do you think we saw the wrinkle of Hernandez getting handed the ball out of the shotgun against Denver?  It was not just to beat the Broncos (that was a foregone conclusion), it was to show this to the Ravens.  You want to bring pressure, OK, just be ready for a 6 foot 4 inch super fast and strong tight end to run it right by your 40 year old barking dog, overhyped ass. Again, the genius at work. Best Bet.

Giants +2.5 vs. 49er’s  Bet $210 to win $200

The rematch game will happen, and result in the highest rated SuperBowl in history.  (Maybe should have gone money line for the outright win?).  I think the Giants are once again peaking at the right time, there is no doubt about it.  But what really has me convinced is that Coughlin will pull back on the awesome pass rushers he has and like Bill focus on stopping the strength, which is Frank Gore.  Can Alex Smith torch the Giants in the air?  Nope.  Unless San Fran wins the turnover and special teams battle, and freaks out the always girly Eli,  I can not see the Niners winning this game.

News & Notes

- As you can tell I re-upped again for these final three games ($1000).

- I am running out of death scenes in Goodfellas.

Stats:

50/50Bets:Record Overall =  119-138-5
Win/Push Percentage = 47.32%

NFL Record Overall  (2011 Season) = 37-55-2

Monday Night Bets Record = 7-11

Best Bets = 16-14
Best Best Win Percentage = 53.33%

Kitty Total = $1000.01

Sportsbook
Profit/Loss =  -($3,141.43)

Long Odds Bets

Record = 2-26

Money Invested = $710.00

Winnings = $1,300.00


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For Good Measure..

Posted on January 17, 2012


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Blood on the Floor

Posted on January 13, 2012

Tommy's Mother's PaintingI am not sure that my readers have really grasped the magnitude of the futility show in these pages when it comes to sports betting.  I have been doing this (offline and on) for the past 16 years.  Over the course of that time I have had good and bad years for sure.  I never have won five figures nor lost anywhere close to that.  Can I say I am about even, as most bettors will incorrectly state?  Yea, I would say that is about right.  Then, I decide to write about my betting endeavors and post it here for all to see.  If you proclaimed that you were going to place two hundred and sixty bets in less than one year, and your intention was to lose each bet,  I submit you could not produce a record as bad as I have.  The one year I decide to be a big shot and show how easy and fun sports betting can be, I get beaten like Billy Batts.

By the way I would like to thank the Alabama readers who sent along their well wishes, gift baskets etc. after my nod to LSU this past Monday.  Roll Tide.  Yet another Loss for the loser.  Believe it or not I actually have some friends that say I should stop the betting altogether and just write about other stuff.  This seems silly to me because if I were them I would ride this loser train to money town.  I did a little calculation.  If you have bet the opposite bet that I have made this year in all 260 bets, you would have banked about $4,200 bucks.  Not bad.

So here is the situation.  I have a balance of $14.15 left to work with (pathetic, I know).  As I have stated previously I would really like to try and work this into a reasonable betting amount by the time the SuperBowl comes around, without having to re-up again and add more funds to this unmitigated disaster.  I have a minimum bet of $5.00 per bet, so I can not bet on all four playoff games this weekend.  I have decided to split the money I have and bet the two games I like the most.  If I lose these both I will have the un-bettable amount of $0.01 left and will be forced to re-up for the remainder of the playoffs.  Is there anything more humiliating than betting $14.14 on two NFL games to win $13.46…Nope.  So here is to hoping that the beating I have taken is done, and I will not wake up in gurgling in the trunk of a Cadillac only to be stabbed in the gut over and over and over with a kitchen knife borrowed from mom.

Bets of the Weekend

Saints -4 vs. 49er’s  Bet $7.07 to win $6.73

San Fran will try to run it all day in order to keep Brees off the field.  The San Fran defense is stout as well, maybe even the best of the year.  San Fran is at home and this crowd misses the old playoff glory days, so this place will be rocking.  New Orleans is not on turf.  They are outdoors.  Some would would say they are even a little soft.  Their defense is not good at all.  So what gives?  Why the Saints?  Do you remember when they won the SuperBowl?  Do you remember the game plan domination and execution of Sean Payton and Brees together?  They have had two weeks to get ready.  This might be a complete blowout.

Packers -7.5 vs. Giants  Bet $7.07 to win $6.73

When will someone learn that if you take out Victor Cruz and stop any big run plays, you can beat the Giants with ease?  I think Mike McCarthy will figure out this riddle.  The one concern would be the Giants very affective four man pass rush, but look for the quick slants and crossing routs, that Green Bay does so well, to come into play to take the rush of the Giants out.  Also, I have not seen Eli throw too many picks lately, but the defense of Green bay gives up a ton of passing yards because they are ball hawking for picks.  I think we see multiple from the baby face boy this weekend.

News and Notes

- I may tweet and Facebook picks on the other two games if I win the first one and get some much needed funds.

- Its funny to me how specialized television is getting.  Just caught an episode of “Shipping Wars” on A&E, and having come from that field I found it very interesting to stick my head back in that world for a half hour and plan to do it again.

- I am Greenberg.

Stats:

50/50Bets:Record Overall =  119-136-5
Win/Push Percentage = 47.69%

NFL Record Overall  (2011 Season) = 37-53-2

Monday Night Bets Record = 7-11

Best Bets = 16-14
Best Best Win Percentage = 53.33%

Kitty Total = $14.15

Sportsbook
Profit/Loss =  -($3,127.28)

Long Odds Bets

Record = 2-26

Money Invested = $710.00

Winnings = $1,300.00


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Purple or Fold

Posted on January 09, 2012
LSU Tigers

National Champs?

In a time when football and religion seemed intertwined more than ever before, you have to ask yourself: “What would Ross do?”.  The reason for asking that questions is very apparent if you have been one of the many faithful readers.  You must know by now, right?  What you do is – the opposite.  I have just come off another losing weekend of NFL football picks, which I am sure is part of some record breaking string that I am too depressed to even bother researching.  I won only the Giants game and lost the other three, badly.  I have topped the three G’s mark in the lost column for the first time in my life and I have the paltry sum of $124.15 left in my account.  The goal at the beginning of this football season was to have fun betting games, make some cash, and cap it with a big Super Bowl bet.  The running stats that I have faithfully kept, and report below, speaks volumes.  The new goal is simple: Have at least $1.00 to bet on the Super Bowl. In order for this new lofty precipice to be met, I have to win tonights college football National Championship game between the LSU Tigers and the Alabama Crimson Tide.  This is going to be quite the rematch.  A redemption game for the Tide or a confirmation game for LSU?  Lets take a look at what this swami had to say the first time this match up took place this season just ten weeks ago:

Alabama -4.5 Vs. LSU  Bet $105 to Win $100

Guess what?  This Saturday night is the college football national championship game!  Yup, the powers that be decided the hell with the rest of the season, lets just have the two best fight it out right now.  This is a rare thing to have the number 1 and number 2 teams meet in the regular season.  This is no doubt a game not to miss.  And I am talking as a guy who has not watched one NCAA football game this year.  If you are a football fan or not, this will be something to watch.  I am putting the over/under on actual heart attacks in the stadium at 3.  Two of them will be from massive (in size) LSU fans who made the trip from the Bayou to Tuscaloosa and stopped at every Home Town Buffet along the way.  I like Bama on my gut alone.  I studied this thing up and down.  They are very even.  Even records, even offense, even defense, even dominating performances against like opponents (they both beat up Florida and Tennessee).  So the scales get tipped on two things.  Home field advantage and coaching.  The refs want to go home alive, and Saban is better than Miles.

Of course this was another Loss for Ross as the Tide missed 4 field goals in the game and fell 9-6 in overtime.  So at this point I think it is only fair if I pick the other side this time, and not offend any Bama faithful as I am sure the Ross Jinx will continue.

Bet of the Night

LSU +2.5 vs. Alabama  Bet $110 to win $100

Honestly, I have done my due diligence with this pick.  LSU is healthier then when they met last time.  They are playing in the Superdome in New Orleans where half of this team played its High School championship games.  I suspect LSU is going to pass the ball more this game and try to exploit the way Bama likes to crowd the box on defense.  I also think that Tyrann Mathieu may prove once again that his the best football player on either side of the ball by creating a turnover or getting a pick that proves crucial.

Stats:

50/50Bets:Record Overall =  119-135-5
Win/Push Percentage = 47.87%

NFL Record Overall  (2011 Season) = 37-53-2

Monday Night Bets Record = 7-11

Best Bets = 16-14
Best Best Win Percentage = 53.33%

Kitty Total = $124.15

Sportsbook
Profit/Loss =  -($3,017.28)

Long Odds Bets

Record = 2-26

Money Invested = $710.00

Winnings = $1,300.00



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Mild Card Weekend

Posted on January 06, 2012

Wild Card Weekend 2012I know that the Seattle Seahawks are not in the playoffs this weekend, as they were last year, but this is still one of the weakest groups of round one playoff entrants I have seen in a long time.  Speaking of weak, this is my first article since December the twenty first (below), and despite my performance this NFL season I do have a history of the playoffs being good to me.  I like to think it has something to do with watching and betting these teams all year long, but after this season I cannot in good conscience say my readers should follow the upcoming advice for any attempt at monetary gain.  I finished the seventeen week NFL regular season with a record of 36-50-2 versus the spread.  This will clearly not lead me to a career path in the bookmaking field.  I re-upped the Kitty twice during this season ( never a good sign either) and stand down a total of $2,909.78 since I started Ross Vs The Loss.  The Loss is winning, Charlie Sheen style. But with the playoffs come new hope.  I have decided not to re-up once again for this last run, but instead I will take my current stash of $231.65 and see what I can do with it.  Outside of the Saints, not one of these teams playing this Saturday and Sunday has a shot of watching the confetti fall in Indianapolis.  But the drama will be there despite the two rookie quarterbacks, gimpy overweight womanizer, and fallen christ child.  I wouldn’t miss it for the world because the end is near and mid February (the darkest days for all sports viewers and bettors) looms.

Playoffs Bets of the Weekend

Bengals +4 vs. Texans  Bet $52.50 to win $50

In week 14 these two teams met playing for their playoff lives.  The Bengals were at home, had a 16-3 halftime lead, and blew chunks in the second half losing 20-19.  Despite being on the road this time, and of course despite having Marvin Lewis as a coach, I think they can pull this out.  I see it being close again and I like taking points not giving when it appears to be an even match.  I also like taking the team that lost in a rematch game such as this.  I also think that Dalton’s season long worth of experience has prepared him better than T.J. Yates who has only been the starter a few weeks.  Running game edge goes to Texans while passing goes to the Bengals.  Defense is even, but home field will help the Texans as well.  I am also not convinced that Andre Johnson is fully recovered and ready for a playoff caliber game.

Lions +10.5 vs. Saints  Bet $52.50 to win $50

Another match up of opponents that have seen each other recently.  It was week 13 and the the Lions lost 31-17 in the Super-dome to Brees and company.  But a closer look shows that the Lions actually had more yards on offense than the Saints and trailed by a single touchdown heading into the 4th quarter.  Don’t get me wrong I think Brees in the smartest QB in all of football (save Peyton), but he does not play defense.  The Saints D can give up some points for sure.  The Lions will have a somewhat familiar feel making this trip for a second time this year and it is on turf which they play on as well.  The number is just too large when you have two teams that can sling it like this.  If Detroit can avoid the ridiculous penalties like they had in the earlier meeting, they will hang tight in this one.

Giants -3 vs. Falcons  Bet $52.50 to win $50

I pretty much had to put the gun to my head in order to make a pick in this one.  The Giants are so inconsistent.  Eli still looks like a frightened little girl out there sometimes.  The fourth quarter comebacks I have seen have often included blind launches downfield that somehow have found Victor Cruz’s hands.  That being said I still think the Giants have a pass rush that could give Matt Ryan fits.  In addition I just do not see the quality wins for the Falcons this year.  The best one to speak of was a squeaker against Detroit in week 7.  The running game of the Giants appears to be getting back to form as well.  Lastly, looking at the coaching match-up the edge clearly goes to Coughlin.

Steelers -8.5 vs. Broncos  Bet $52.50 to win $50

I love the NFL but how is a 12-4 team on the road against an 8-8 team?  This seems like a lot of points for a road team to give to any other NFL team, but this is the Bronco’s.  Tim Tebow has no chance of winning this game, the questions is can he keep it close?  Big Ben is hurt and not his “extend the play” normal self.  Which if you watch Pittsburgh enough you realize how much a part of the offense this is.  Can Denver play solid D and slow Pittsburgh and win a 10-9 game?  I don’t think so.

News & Notes

-No update on the Wellesley story.  Media ignorance is bliss.

- Since December 21 I am 8-7-1 overall, 5-4 NFL, 3-2-1 in College Bowl games.

- No update on my former high school hoop teammate (Charles Crawford) suing the Red Sox.  I think the settlement talks have begun, but I do not expect a big number.

Stats:

50/50Bets:Record Overall =  118-132-5
Win/Push Percentage = 48.23%

NFL Record Overall  (2011 Season) = 36-50-2

Monday Night Bets Record = 7-11

Best Bets = 16-14
Best Best Win Percentage = 53.33%

Kitty Total = $231.65.

Sportsbook
Profit/Loss =  -($2,909.78)

Long Odds Bets

Record = 2-26

Money Invested = $710.00

Winnings = $1,300.00


2 Responses

  1. Its A burgh thang:

    Hey ross- I totally agree with your comments about the steelers. I mean they are better than the wild card to begin with but tebow!!!? He thinks he’s gods gift to the earth- i hope they crush him! He’s tim tebow, not tim riggins!!!! GO BURGH!!!!

    06.01.2012 20:39 Reply

    • Ross:

      While I do think the Broncs and their Holy man have no shot to win I also stated earlier in the piece that Pittsburgh will not be in the big dance either. New England owns that spot for sure.

      06.01.2012 20:49 Reply

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Cover Up In Wellesley?

Posted on December 21, 2011

Edmunds Road AttackOn a calm Monday this November the 28th at around 1:00 in the afternoon, in the affluent Boston Massachusetts suburb of Wellesley, a man entered a home on Edmunds Road and sexually assaulted a female teenager.  He was described to police as a balding black man wearing all black clothing and blue gloves.  Wellesley and State Police both on foot, and in helicopters, combed the area for hours wielding shotguns and assault rifles.  Around 5:00pm the search was called off as police said they were “confident he was no longer in the area”.  That is a statement that you would not want to be wrong about if you are the Wellesley police department.  It appears they were right to be confident because I suspect that by 5:00pm they already had a good idea that this black man did not exist at all.

This story as it broke on that day was not small news in the least.  It was covered live by local news stations from the ground and the air much like the police search.  Only moments after it appeared on police scanners, both the local Fox and ABC affiliates were on the scene.  Like it or not, it is big news when a broad daylight sexual assault happens in a town like Wellesley.  As a matter of fact, a similiar attack happened at almost the same time, on the same day, in Franklin Park in Boston, and the coverage was minimal by comparison.  Having lived twenty four years of my life in Wellesley, I took special interest in this dramatic and shocking story.  The fact that the described assailant was a black man was not lost on me either.  You see, I was living in Wellesley at the time of the famous Dee Brown incident, in which the then point guard for the Celtics, was made to lay face down in a parking lot accused of resembling a bank robber from a few days before.  The incident had given a label to Wellesley as an elitist, mostly white, and racially biased community, that to this day has been hard to shake.  Upon seeing the news of the attack on Edmunds Road I immediately thought of Dee Brown.  For a moment it flashed in my head that this would be another horrible chapter in the towns history if somehow this turned out not to be true.  A few days later I was talking with a friend who stills has strong ties to people living in Wellesley and also grew up there.  It was a natural topic to bring up.  ”Did you see the news the other about Wellesley” was all I had to say to elicit a response.  The response was not what I expected at all.  ”The word around town is that the girl had already gotten pregnant by her boyfriend and had made up the story so as to not get in trouble with her parents”.  ”Holy Crap”, I replied “this story is going to be huge!!”

Here we go again, the town of Wellesley is yet again going to be involved in a racially charged story of false accusations.  This will be the next Charles Stuart case.  Al Sharpton may even fly in for a press conference on the Wellesley town hall steps!  The next few days I scoured the Boston Globe each morning waiting for this behemoth story to break.  Nothing.  I then got online and searched for a few more days.  Nothing.  I ended up talking with my source one more time who confirmed the same rumors and allegations.  I asked “why is this not a big deal in the news”, but received no satisfactory answer.  I checked local sources like the Wellesley town newspaper, The Townsman, nothing.  Surely people must be wondering where is the follow up coverage?  If it is not made up then are people safe?  Was my source just plain wrong and the assault did take place?  Finally a few weeks later I found a blog site about Wellesley called the Swellesley Report.  There was a post the simply stated that the police had issued a statement and it was available on their website to read.  Here is what it said:

Several citizens have contacted the police department or Town Hall asking if there is any further information available about the incident Monday on Edmunds Road.  We understand that the event itself, as well as the subsequent search of the area, were unnerving.  The very tactics we use to make sure a neighborhood is completely safe can, unfortunately, make people feel less safe.  But as a result of the steps we took, and the Wellesley and State Police assets we utilized, by the time we pulled out of the neighborhood we were confident it was safe.

Currently, our detectives are working tirelessly on the case.  The ongoing status of the investigation, as well as the nature of the incident itself, require that we withhold any comments, theories or speculation.  Unfortunately, residents should not expect updates on the case unless something definitive develops.  There will be no composite or sketch prepared in this case.  This is an issue of investigative protocol and no inferences should be drawn from it.

There have been some housebreaks in Wellesley recently, and residents have inquired about any potential nexus to Monday’s incident.  There is no reason to believe that Monday’s case is related.  Notably, two weeks ago our detectives arrested three subjects in connection with one of the housebreaks in the area. On Thursday, two additional subjects arrested by another agency were positively identified in another of our housebreaks.  Those two individuals are currently in custody.

We have increased patrols in the Edmunds Road neighborhood.  This was done to reassure residents and help families feel secure, not because we have any reason to believe that the neighborhood is unsafe.

Residents who still have questions should feel free to call Police Headquarters, or email us through this website, and an officer will contact you.

We appreciate the community’s support.

Chief Cunningham

After reading this I became convinced my source was correct.  Something had happened or been admitted by the parties involved that had told police their was nothing to worry about.  But this just raised a larger question in my mind.  How did the media not cover this apparent result!  How has this rumor not become a story on the local Fox and ABC affiliates who were so eager to cover it in the first place.  They certainly cannot use the excuse that it is because a minor was involved.  They cover stories with minors all the time and just leave out the name out of the story.  What made this different?  Why was a story that involves a racially charged, false accusation, sexual assault, in an affluent town, not reported on?  This is the stuff that program directors wet themselves over.  If you have watched your local news these days, this story is a typical home-run, as long as you don’t blink when watching the ten second story flash by with loud graphics and swooshing sounds.

The only explanation I can come up with comes right from the source of the controversy.  Edmunds Road.  This street is in the Cliff Estates section of Wellesley.  Whoever this family is, they have money.  Money they used to make this go away.  Am I suggesting they paid off the media?  That would be insane, right.  Did they lawyer up and whip off a steady stream of preemptive cease and desist orders to every major media outlet?  Did they contact the police and send them a copy of the above statement to be quietly placed on their website?  I am not sure of any of this.  I am not the media.  But it begs the question…who is?  The culprit here is not the family involved.  It is certainly not the confused and frightened girl who allegedly made a very bad choice.  Don’t the residents of this community deserve to know what happened for sure?  The real culprit is the media. They have shown us that under the right circumstances, the pressure of power and influence, can edit them into silence.

Bet of the Night

TCU -9 vs. Louisiana Tech  Bet $110 to win $100

First bet of the college bowl season.  I did some diligent study on this one and I have the feeling that TCU may blow this game open.  They key is that they play like they want to be in this game and are not to disappointed by not making a BCS game as they have the previous two seasons.  I think that teams with big layoffs between games that can run the ball and play defense (TCU) have an advantage over teams that like to throw the ball like LA Tech does.

News and Notes

- Patriots clinch AFC Division and will have home field and a buy in round one.  The march continues…

- I will have picks up for this NFL weekend here, but my Thursday selection will be via Twitter and Facebook.

- Two wins and two losses this past Sunday for a $45 profit!  That is not even very good and I was excited about it.  Of course I blew the Monday night bet…again.

Stats:

50/50Bets:Record Overall =  110-125-4
Win/Push Percentage = 47.69%

NFL Record Overall  (2011 Season) = 31-46-2

Monday Night Bets Record = 7-11

Best Bets = 16-13
Best Best Win Percentage = 55.17%

Kitty Total = $362.22

Sportsbook
Profit/Loss =  -($2.779.21)

Long Odds Bets

Record = 2-26

Money Invested = $710.00

Winnings = $1,300.00


2 Responses

  1. Ross:

    Bets for Christmas Eve are on Facebook and Twitter. Merry Christmas to all the faithful readers. Thank you.

    24.12.2011 11:04 Reply

  2. Ross:

    Picks for Jan 1 NFL on Facebook and Twitter. Ross Vs. The Loss

    01.01.2012 13:30 Reply

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Tim Time

Posted on December 16, 2011

Tebow ManiaWhen my son and I retire to the basement this Sunday at 4:15pm it will be a little different.  All season long we have watched in stunned amazement, the outcomes of the Denver Bronco’s games. Each week I say out loud “it can’t happen again”, and each week I get the response of “I think he can do it”.  It is with enthusiasm, that I used to remember when I was 9 years old, that he utters those words.  Youthful exuberance, lack of football knowledge, and endless questions, are all traits I had when sitting with my father watching football as well.  But I never had a run of “I told you so” like my son has had with me.  Each week Tim Tebow pulls it out, he smiles wide, knowing he has bested the old man once again.  Little does he know that his old man has been routinely bested all year by his sportsbook, but that’s another matter.

You see, my son has more than just the normal reasons a kid roots for an underdog like Tebow.  About a month ago he just finished his second season of youth football.  He plays quarterback and loves it.  His first season was a big success.  The team went for 7 wins and 2 losses.  It was his first year and he played a majority of the snaps because the other QB on the team also played hockey and (predictably) missed quite a few games.  There was not a lot of passing, as is customary at his age level, so half the scoring came from handoff’s to some great little running backs.  The other half was on the strength of his legs and the quarterback sneak.  He carried the ball a ton, and had multiple (not that I was counting…) touchdowns over 50 yards.  Speed at this level is a tremendous asset.  Year two came around and with it a new head coach.  This coach was not afraid of the pass, and with him also came a new quarterback to share time with.  This new QB came from a baseball background and has a rocket arm.  On two point conversions (no kicking for extra points at this level) the new guy would come in and throw.  My son had a hard time with it at first.  Even as he was still making big plays, no turnovers, and scoring touchdowns, I could tell it stung him a little when he would come out on some passing plays.  To his credit he never let it show on the field, and was always ready to go back in and do what the coach asked.  He always rooted for his QB teammate, who is a friend as well.   Then the coach started to work with him in practice on his throwing, followed by backyard sessions with Dad.

What followed were multiple completed passes to the end-zone for scores.  He still ran it most of the time, but when he passed, it worked.  Sound familiar?  So the love is there for Mr. Tebow from little number 12 in this house.  It is also important to mention that despite my sons early throwing struggles and doubting himself, his team was undefeated (9-0, only team in the whole program). He just wins, he is a lefty, and his first name is Tim.  So when we sit to watch the home town Patriots take on Tebow this weekend I know where his heart will really be, as would mine, at age nine.

Bets of the Weekend

Buccaneers +7 vs. Cowboys  Bet $50 to win $43.48

Taking some light action on this first Saturday night NFL offering of the year.  I know that Tampa seems to be imploding after a surprising year last year.  I also know that the solo stage, and being at home may be just what the doctor ordered for this team.  I think they play hard and try not to get embarrassed again.  Dallas will be playing for Jason Garrett’s job so will they be ready, or will they play tight?  And of course there is always the Romo factor.  He loves to find a way to blow a cover, I think he helps me as usual.

Saints -7 vs. Vikings  Bet $100 to win $100

Getting even odds on this game which kind of gives me the creeps.  The Vikes have been playing OK as of late and Ponder is starting to get it going a little.  But I just think these are two different classes of teams here, and the Saints will be playing on turf, even if it’s not their own, I think that helps their speed offense.  The Saints can be a little Jekyll and Hyde from week to week and did not look so smooth last week. This week they are trying to move forward on getting the 2 seed and a home playoff game and they need a win to do it.  Lay the 7.

Patriots -7 vs. Broncos  Bet $125 to win $100

Sorry little man but I got be smart.  This spread was 7.5 so I paid $125 to get it to a straight 7.  I think that Tebow mania runs its course this week.  I see a blow out.  I see the Pats taking a early lead.  I see Tebow tossing multiple picks.  I see a smiling Belichick giving a nice hug/backslap to Tim as he walks out with the victory.  The march continues.

Ravens -2.5 vs. Chargers  Bet $105 to win $100

San Diego kills me.  I bet with them, I lose.  I bet against them, I lose.  This time I am picking a side for good.  I still think Norv Turner is a moron and will be fired at the end of the season.  The Ravens defense crushes Rivers and will most likely win this game outright.  Ray Rice runs wild and the Ravens coast to the W, or cover, whichever.

News & Notes

- So I am on a hot streak.  I have won two games in a row.  This has only happened twice in 31 days.  That is how bad it has been.

- Bet over 4 sacks for last nights game and got 6.  Wow, Blaine Gabbert is bad.  I think the new Pakistani owner of the Jags will give it one year max before looking to move out of Jacksonville.

-  Red Sox have pretty much said they are not spending any money on big players this year.  The Bobby V slide begins, buckle up.

-  Set you DVR’s, for tonight at 9:00pm on HBO.  Back by popular demand a brand new season of “The Life and Times of Tim”.  Disclaimer Statement: There is no correlation between this show and Tim Tebow or my son, it is just pure coincidence, and by no means do either of the aforementioned represent in any way the character of “Tim” from said show. Thank you.

- Just realized that I will actually be attending two different family Christmas parties this Sunday.  One starts around 1:00pm and the other around 4:00pm.  Kill me.

Stats:

50/50Bets:Record Overall =  108-122-4
Win/Push Percentage = 47.86%

NFL Record Overall  (2011 Season) = 29-43-2

Monday Night Bets Record = 7-10

Best Bets = 16-13
Best Best Win Percentage = 55.17%

Kitty Total = $427.22

Sportsbook
Profit/Loss =  -($2.714.21)

Long Odds Bets

Record = 2-26

Money Invested = $710.00

Winnings = $1,300.00


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Going Down

Posted on December 12, 2011
Crash and Burn

Autopilot

Bet of the Night

Seahawks -9.5 vs. Rams Bets $110 to win $100

Seattle is at home in one of the best home field advantage stadiums in the league.  If Seattle can support a soccer team, they will cheer for anything, even a 5-7 team.  St. Louis is horrible, the coach is most likely gone at the end of the season and they may start a practice squad QB tonight.  Lay the points.

News & Notes

- I wrote on Friday, when picking Kansas City, that “Haley still has his players playing for him”.  They got cremated by the Jets and he was fired today.  I really am the kiss of death.

- The UFC pay per view fight this weekend was one of the best I have ever seen.  It is still available and worth every penny.  No spoilers here, but lets just say its never a good result when a guys refuses to tap, and it happened twice!

- Patriots defense is so scary, but it will just make the league scratch their heads even more when the confetti falls in February.

- Full article tomorrow. (Christmas duties arise, alas no article as promised: 12/13/11)

- 1-3 in the NFL this weekend. 1-0 UFC.  Horrible

Stats:

50/50Bets:Record Overall =  106-122-4
Win/Push Percentage = 47.41%

NFL Record Overall  (2011 Season) = 27-43-2

Monday Night Bets Record = 6-10

Best Bets = 16-13
Best Best Win Percentage = 55.17%

Kitty Total = $227.22

Sportsbook
Profit/Loss =  -($2.914.21)

Long Odds Bets

Record = 2-26

Money Invested = $710.00

Winnings = $1,300.00


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Ode to Joy!

Posted on December 09, 2011

Christmas TimeTake a listen:

01 Ode To Joy from Symphony No. 9 In D Minor, Op. 125

(27 seconds in for the good stuff, what a tune!)

Top Ten Worst Phrases to Hear at Christmas Time.

10.  Why does our Elf have a tag that says “Made in China”?

9.  Can you make a run to the mall after work?

8.  You don’t need to get me anything.

7. I think we are going to host.

6.  I need you to pick up a box of oats and glitter.

5.  Maybe we should try the midnight mass on Christmas Eve?

4.  Lets cut down our own tree.

3.  I am not jingling those.

2.  What’s the balance in checking right now?

1.  Lets do something different with the outside lights this year.

Bets of the Weekend

Colts +16.5 vs. Ravens  Bets $105 to win 100

The latest installment at QB for the Colts (Orlovsky) faired pretty well in his debut, tossing for over 300 yards.  He is facing the Ravens defense, not the Patriots, so that is a concern.  But I think the commish is smelling a tank job taking place in Indy and the coaches may have to actually try and cover someone this week.  Back door cover late in the game is expected.

Chiefs +10.5 vs. Jets  Bet $105 to win $100

The Jets are just not good enough to be giving ten and a half to anyone in this league.  Also Haley has his players still playing for him despite their record.  The Jets will most likely win this, but I think Sanchez has another uneven performance that keeps this close.

Bills +7 vs. Chargers  Bet $105 to win $100

Norv Turner is out in San Diego at the end of this year.  Have you seen this team play?  Weak is an understatement, coupled with the worst clock managers in the game.  The Bills are playing for jack in this one and I like it.  In all three of these picks I am taking road underdogs with nothing to lose (like me).  Pride still plays on Sunday, and when these spreads get big, opportunity knocks.

News & Notes

- Saturday night brings The UFC light heavy weight (205 lb.) championship match between Jon Jones and Lyoto Machida.  Jones is a freak of nature.  One of his brothers plays for the Ravens, another plays for Syracuse.  He won the national junior college wrestling title before dropping out to start MMA.  He is only 24 and his moves are scary fast.  Right now you have to put up $550 just to win $100 on Jones, and Machida is no joke!  I could spend my last dollars on Jones, but I think I am going to wait for the proposition bet of “which round will Jones finish Machida” to be posted.  I will tweet/facebook this bet when it happens.

- Tiger’s first win, in an event he created and hosted?  Let’s not get to excited about this…yet.

- LSU Vs. Bama rematch is kind of boring, but it is the two best teams.

- Is there a Balco office in Anaheim?

- This just in: A rare form of cancer has been found at the Celtics practice facility, its called Rondosarcoma.

- 1-5 record since last re-up…..

Stats:

50/50Bets:Record Overall =  104-119-4
Win/Push Percentage = 47.57%

NFL Record Overall  (2011 Season) = 26-40-2

Monday Night Bets Record = 6-10

Best Bets = 16-13
Best Best Win Percentage = 55.17%

Kitty Total = $400

Sportsbook
Profit/Loss =  -($2.741.43)

Long Odds Bets

Record = 2-26

Money Invested = $710.00

Winnings = $1,300.00


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