Play Time

Posted on January 20, 2012

Belichick Genius

Week twelve is when I knew the Patriots would win the SuperBowl. I had just watched the Belichick boys give up 400 yards passing to Vince Young of the Eagles, yet the game was never even close. That is when I came to the understanding that this season was going to be Bill Belichick’s masterpiece.  When you take a cursory look at the Patriots as a team, the average fan or even experienced analyst has been saying the same thing all year.  The defense is horrible.  They can’t win consistently with the players they have on that side of the ball.  Sure they can score points, but come playoff time, defense will rule.  This is where the genius of Bill comes into play.  Guess what?  Bill could give a rats ass about the defense.  Don’t take that the wrong way, of course he would love to have his defense post shutouts every game, but he knows with the players he currently has on this roster, that this is not going to happen.  What brainiac Bill concerns himself with is one thing, and that is to possess the ball.  Do not get this confused with the always hyped “time of possession” stat.  We are talking about the number of plays (snaps) his offense gets to take.  The New England Patriots this year were the second highest (Saints first) in total offensive snaps per game.  Bill knows that this may be the most unstoppable offense he has ever coached.

Have they scored more points than any other?  No (see his 2007 team for that distinction). What unstoppable means is that if the team executes the plan correctly and adjusts, in game as needed, the opposing coach has no way to stop them.  You want to double team Gronkowski?  Welker has 16 catches 217 yards and 2 touchdowns.  Want to stop Welker?  Gronkowski goes for 6 catches 160 yards and 2 touchdowns.  How about trying to jam up both of those guys on the line?  Dion Branch gets targeted for 8 catches 129 yards and one score.  Throw in the other monster at tight end, Hernandez and he will get 9 catches for 129 yards and 1 touchdown.  These are all real stats from this season.   The more times you can get the ball in Brady’s hands the more they win.  Their three losses this year were the three lowest number of offensive plays.  So, how do get more plays?  How do you get the most snaps for this juggernunt that can’t be stopped? Invite the other team to pass on you all day.  The more the other team runs the ball the more the clock runs down.  Less time on the clock means fewer plays for your offense.  The more they pass, the more the clock stops.  It is that simple.

When you give up over 300 yards passing to more teams than any other in the league, but still finish with a record of 13-3, clearly you have a plan, and it is working.  This is genius.  Go ahead and pass.  Go ahead and score quickly.  Go ahead and give the Patriots the ball back.  You better get seven points nearly every possession against the Patriots defense, because if you do not, their offense will.  Paramount for the defense is to stop the run and dare the other team to throw.  Once Belichick saw what he had for defensive talent, this became his plan for this year.  No one can stop my offense, my defense is not good, so lets make sure we get as many opportunities for the offense as we can.  Let ‘em pass.  Did he figure this out on his own?  Does he have a saber-metrics geek employed on the staff who came up with this?  Not sure, but it works.  It will continue to work.  And maybe after the season someone in the media will realize this, but you heard it hear first.  The old adage of “defense wins championships” may seem dead with this method of madness, but it still can ring true.   Just not against the best offense ever assembled.  Bring the plays, bring the ring.

Bets of the Weekend.

Patriots -7 vs. Ravens  Bet $345 to win $300

As stated above, I think they focus on stopping Ray Rice from running the ball at all cost.  Let Flaco throw and even if mildly successful at it, it will not matter.  Now, the one caveat to this game is if the Baltimore defense can get the pressure up the middle, get Brady on the move, and disrupt the passing game.  But if I know this could be a factor then Bill does also.  Why do you think we saw the wrinkle of Hernandez getting handed the ball out of the shotgun against Denver?  It was not just to beat the Broncos (that was a foregone conclusion), it was to show this to the Ravens.  You want to bring pressure, OK, just be ready for a 6 foot 4 inch super fast and strong tight end to run it right by your 40 year old barking dog, overhyped ass. Again, the genius at work. Best Bet.

Giants +2.5 vs. 49er’s  Bet $210 to win $200

The rematch game will happen, and result in the highest rated SuperBowl in history.  (Maybe should have gone money line for the outright win?).  I think the Giants are once again peaking at the right time, there is no doubt about it.  But what really has me convinced is that Coughlin will pull back on the awesome pass rushers he has and like Bill focus on stopping the strength, which is Frank Gore.  Can Alex Smith torch the Giants in the air?  Nope.  Unless San Fran wins the turnover and special teams battle, and freaks out the always girly Eli,  I can not see the Niners winning this game.

News & Notes

- As you can tell I re-upped again for these final three games ($1000).

- I am running out of death scenes in Goodfellas.

Stats:

50/50Bets:Record Overall =  119-138-5
Win/Push Percentage = 47.32%

NFL Record Overall  (2011 Season) = 37-55-2

Monday Night Bets Record = 7-11

Best Bets = 16-14
Best Best Win Percentage = 53.33%

Kitty Total = $1000.01

Sportsbook
Profit/Loss =  -($3,141.43)

Long Odds Bets

Record = 2-26

Money Invested = $710.00

Winnings = $1,300.00


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