Blood on the Floor

Posted on January 13, 2012

Tommy's Mother's PaintingI am not sure that my readers have really grasped the magnitude of the futility show in these pages when it comes to sports betting.  I have been doing this (offline and on) for the past 16 years.  Over the course of that time I have had good and bad years for sure.  I never have won five figures nor lost anywhere close to that.  Can I say I am about even, as most bettors will incorrectly state?  Yea, I would say that is about right.  Then, I decide to write about my betting endeavors and post it here for all to see.  If you proclaimed that you were going to place two hundred and sixty bets in less than one year, and your intention was to lose each bet,  I submit you could not produce a record as bad as I have.  The one year I decide to be a big shot and show how easy and fun sports betting can be, I get beaten like Billy Batts.

By the way I would like to thank the Alabama readers who sent along their well wishes, gift baskets etc. after my nod to LSU this past Monday.  Roll Tide.  Yet another Loss for the loser.  Believe it or not I actually have some friends that say I should stop the betting altogether and just write about other stuff.  This seems silly to me because if I were them I would ride this loser train to money town.  I did a little calculation.  If you have bet the opposite bet that I have made this year in all 260 bets, you would have banked about $4,200 bucks.  Not bad.

So here is the situation.  I have a balance of $14.15 left to work with (pathetic, I know).  As I have stated previously I would really like to try and work this into a reasonable betting amount by the time the SuperBowl comes around, without having to re-up again and add more funds to this unmitigated disaster.  I have a minimum bet of $5.00 per bet, so I can not bet on all four playoff games this weekend.  I have decided to split the money I have and bet the two games I like the most.  If I lose these both I will have the un-bettable amount of $0.01 left and will be forced to re-up for the remainder of the playoffs.  Is there anything more humiliating than betting $14.14 on two NFL games to win $13.46…Nope.  So here is to hoping that the beating I have taken is done, and I will not wake up in gurgling in the trunk of a Cadillac only to be stabbed in the gut over and over and over with a kitchen knife borrowed from mom.

Bets of the Weekend

Saints -4 vs. 49er’s  Bet $7.07 to win $6.73

San Fran will try to run it all day in order to keep Brees off the field.  The San Fran defense is stout as well, maybe even the best of the year.  San Fran is at home and this crowd misses the old playoff glory days, so this place will be rocking.  New Orleans is not on turf.  They are outdoors.  Some would would say they are even a little soft.  Their defense is not good at all.  So what gives?  Why the Saints?  Do you remember when they won the SuperBowl?  Do you remember the game plan domination and execution of Sean Payton and Brees together?  They have had two weeks to get ready.  This might be a complete blowout.

Packers -7.5 vs. Giants  Bet $7.07 to win $6.73

When will someone learn that if you take out Victor Cruz and stop any big run plays, you can beat the Giants with ease?  I think Mike McCarthy will figure out this riddle.  The one concern would be the Giants very affective four man pass rush, but look for the quick slants and crossing routs, that Green Bay does so well, to come into play to take the rush of the Giants out.  Also, I have not seen Eli throw too many picks lately, but the defense of Green bay gives up a ton of passing yards because they are ball hawking for picks.  I think we see multiple from the baby face boy this weekend.

News and Notes

- I may tweet and Facebook picks on the other two games if I win the first one and get some much needed funds.

- Its funny to me how specialized television is getting.  Just caught an episode of “Shipping Wars” on A&E, and having come from that field I found it very interesting to stick my head back in that world for a half hour and plan to do it again.

- I am Greenberg.

Stats:

50/50Bets:Record Overall =  119-136-5
Win/Push Percentage = 47.69%

NFL Record Overall  (2011 Season) = 37-53-2

Monday Night Bets Record = 7-11

Best Bets = 16-14
Best Best Win Percentage = 53.33%

Kitty Total = $14.15

Sportsbook
Profit/Loss =  -($3,127.28)

Long Odds Bets

Record = 2-26

Money Invested = $710.00

Winnings = $1,300.00


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Purple or Fold

Posted on January 09, 2012
LSU Tigers

National Champs?

In a time when football and religion seemed intertwined more than ever before, you have to ask yourself: “What would Ross do?”.  The reason for asking that questions is very apparent if you have been one of the many faithful readers.  You must know by now, right?  What you do is – the opposite.  I have just come off another losing weekend of NFL football picks, which I am sure is part of some record breaking string that I am too depressed to even bother researching.  I won only the Giants game and lost the other three, badly.  I have topped the three G’s mark in the lost column for the first time in my life and I have the paltry sum of $124.15 left in my account.  The goal at the beginning of this football season was to have fun betting games, make some cash, and cap it with a big Super Bowl bet.  The running stats that I have faithfully kept, and report below, speaks volumes.  The new goal is simple: Have at least $1.00 to bet on the Super Bowl. In order for this new lofty precipice to be met, I have to win tonights college football National Championship game between the LSU Tigers and the Alabama Crimson Tide.  This is going to be quite the rematch.  A redemption game for the Tide or a confirmation game for LSU?  Lets take a look at what this swami had to say the first time this match up took place this season just ten weeks ago:

Alabama -4.5 Vs. LSU  Bet $105 to Win $100

Guess what?  This Saturday night is the college football national championship game!  Yup, the powers that be decided the hell with the rest of the season, lets just have the two best fight it out right now.  This is a rare thing to have the number 1 and number 2 teams meet in the regular season.  This is no doubt a game not to miss.  And I am talking as a guy who has not watched one NCAA football game this year.  If you are a football fan or not, this will be something to watch.  I am putting the over/under on actual heart attacks in the stadium at 3.  Two of them will be from massive (in size) LSU fans who made the trip from the Bayou to Tuscaloosa and stopped at every Home Town Buffet along the way.  I like Bama on my gut alone.  I studied this thing up and down.  They are very even.  Even records, even offense, even defense, even dominating performances against like opponents (they both beat up Florida and Tennessee).  So the scales get tipped on two things.  Home field advantage and coaching.  The refs want to go home alive, and Saban is better than Miles.

Of course this was another Loss for Ross as the Tide missed 4 field goals in the game and fell 9-6 in overtime.  So at this point I think it is only fair if I pick the other side this time, and not offend any Bama faithful as I am sure the Ross Jinx will continue.

Bet of the Night

LSU +2.5 vs. Alabama  Bet $110 to win $100

Honestly, I have done my due diligence with this pick.  LSU is healthier then when they met last time.  They are playing in the Superdome in New Orleans where half of this team played its High School championship games.  I suspect LSU is going to pass the ball more this game and try to exploit the way Bama likes to crowd the box on defense.  I also think that Tyrann Mathieu may prove once again that his the best football player on either side of the ball by creating a turnover or getting a pick that proves crucial.

Stats:

50/50Bets:Record Overall =  119-135-5
Win/Push Percentage = 47.87%

NFL Record Overall  (2011 Season) = 37-53-2

Monday Night Bets Record = 7-11

Best Bets = 16-14
Best Best Win Percentage = 53.33%

Kitty Total = $124.15

Sportsbook
Profit/Loss =  -($3,017.28)

Long Odds Bets

Record = 2-26

Money Invested = $710.00

Winnings = $1,300.00



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