Ahh….Juicy Fruit

Posted on March 3, 2011

juicy fruitSo what happens tonight will determine how this little project will proceed for weeks to come. I am putting $490.00 on the line with the four NCAA Tourney games tonight. if I go 0-4 the Kitty will stand at $1,063.93 (down from $1,553.93). Now if I go 4-0 I will collect $487.50 in profit and the Kitty will be at $2,041.43. Of course the most likely scenario is that I will finish somewhere in between, but the potential of a nearly one thousand dollar Kitty swing is definitely getting the blood pumping.

I think there is such a thing as over studying when it comes to big games. You can read article after article that tells you Duke will cruise to victory over Arizona. Then two minutes later read about how no one on Duke can stop Derrick Williams and Zona has a real chance. The bottom line is that no one knows for sure…it’s gambling. But I do think that as a bettor you have to grab onto certain indicators that you like to use, be well informed for sure, but not engulfed with some much info that you get bettor’s freeze. This is where you have digested so much info for each side that you are frozen and can’t make a pick. One of the most important indicators I use is to look at the entire schedule for the year of each team. Did they have common opponents? How was the strength of the competition they faced all year? What were the point totals when they won versus when they lost? This is my favorite indicator to give me an overall gut feeling and help break through any bettor’s freeze.

Without further B.S. here are the picks for tonight’s games, starting with the pick I made yesterday (see Archive page):

Connecticut -1 vs. San Diego St ($110 to win 100) I have found myself leaning towards Big East teams over the course of my betting career. It has served me pretty well especially in NCAA hoops. This year the Big East has been the whipping boy of the tourney. Not only did 9 of 11 get knocked out already, but the sports writers are now all claiming that there never should have been 11 teams from the Big East to begin with. Well let’s see if the Big East cream has risen to the top. This win or loss is determined by one factor alone and that is Kemba Walker. Have you seen this guy? If he plays well I win, not, and I lose, it’s that simple. I think he plays well.

Florida -3 vs. BYU ($220 to win $200)
Did you notice the gap in speed and athleticism between the players on Florida St. versus ND in the previous round? It was astonishing how ND looked like boys playing men at times in that game. I see the same thing happening here. I don’t want to use the term blow out, so I will just say that Florida will…destroy (that works) BYU in my best bet pick of the day.

Duke vs. Arizona Under 148 ($110 to win $100)
First off this number jumped quite a bit in two days (again see Archive 3/22/11 entry), going from 144.5 to 148. That intrigued me so I took a close look at the numbers. Lets assume that Duke as a 8.5 point favorite is going to win the game and Arizona will lose. With that assumption in place I then looked at Duke’s wins over the course of this season over quality opponents’ (other tourney teams), and came up with an average of 74.1 points scored. I then looked at Arizona’s losses over the course of this season to quality opponets’ and came up with an average of 67.2 points scored. Totaled up that equals 141.3 total points. Is this crazy? We will see.

Butler to win outright vs. Wisconsin ($50 to win $87.50) Money Line = +175
Brad Stevens is God. Final game last year, Sweet 16 this year… from the Horizon League? He lost his best player to the draft Gordon Hayward (who is a non factor in the NBA), but still made it this far. I think they can win this game outright and keep this Butler media bus moving. I think this is the best team Butler and Stevens could have hoped to face at this stage and I think the game plan will be the difference. I do worry about rebounding being an issue to be truthful and only bet $50 on this money line. Will I regret not taking the extra 4.5 points?

There it is. Will I break through to the 2g’s level with a sweep, bust that sink through the window bars and never look back? Or will I be shocked into a veggie state and be at a kitty low point?

….Medication Time…..Medication Time.

Categories: sports-commentary

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